NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jahmyr Gibbs RB

DET vs GB · Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET

38.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 35%14/40 Odds imply —

Season avg: 48.6
Graph avg: 36.1
Graph median: 31.00–107
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Carries21.0▲+6.7

Rush Yds100.8▲+28.9

Rush TD1.4▲+0.6

Targets6.8▲+1.3

Rec5.4▲+0.9

Rec Yds48.6▲+12.4

Snaps52.8▲+9.4

Snap %76.6%▲+9.6

38.5

2024

34

Sep 08
22

Sep 15
20

Sep 22
0

Sep 30
28

Oct 13
44

Oct 20
6

Oct 27
11

Nov 03
37

Nov 10
54

Nov 17
9

Nov 24
17

Nov 28
30

Dec 05
83

Dec 15
45

Dec 22
46

Dec 30
31

Jan 05
70

Jan 18
2025

31

Sep 07
10

Sep 14
32

Sep 22
6

Sep 28
33

Oct 05
0

Oct 12
82

Oct 20
3

Nov 02
30

Nov 09
107

Nov 16
45

Nov 23
18

Nov 27
77

Dec 04
20

Dec 14
66

Dec 21
23

Dec 25
33

Jan 04
2026

30

Sep 13
61

Sep 17
65

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
56

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 38.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 37.5
Away 30% 6/20 · avg 34.9
vs GB 0% 0/4 · avg 22.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 62% 25/40
O 33.5 40% 16/40
O 38.5 Today 35% 14/40
O 43.5 35% 14/40
O 48.5 25% 10/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs GB

What GB allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds110.8#2
Yds/Carry4.4#11
Rush TD1.5#1
Targets5.4#17
Rec Yds35.9#9

RBs vs GB · 2026

Each main RB who faced GB this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %-3%

Beat their average33% (2/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Javonte Williams	9	18.8	-52%
Oct 11	D'Andre Swift	30	22.0	+36%
Oct 04	Bucky Irving	0	14.8	-100%
Sep 24	Bijan Robinson	19	25.0	-24%
Sep 20	Breece Hall	63	19.5	+223%
Sep 13	Aaron Jones	0	18.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%13.8 yds#6	4%10.1 yds#32	7%5.3 yds#29
Short	25%5.1 yds#26	21%6.0 yds#26	35%5.8 yds#11

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	33%6.2 yds	39%7.9 yds	28%5.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	5	11.4	57	31.1%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	5	7.4	37	18.9%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5	6.8	34	18.8%
4	Jameson Williams WR	5	5.8	29	15.2%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	5	3.8	19	9.6%
6	Brock Wright TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 38.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ARI	56	Over	37.5	46 (70%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	31	Under	35.5	62 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	65	Over	34.5	45 (69%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	61	Over	31.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	30	Under	30.5	57 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	33	Under	33.5	52 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	23	Under	33.5	44 (69%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	66	Over	28.5	64 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	20	Under	16.5	52 (81%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	77	Over	80.5	43 (69%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	18	Under	—	44 (70%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	45	Over	30.5	50 (74%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	107	Over	107.5	43 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	30	Under	30.5	35 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	3	Under	3.5	42 (66%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	82	Over	85.5	38 (56%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	0	Under	10.5	37 (69%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	33	Under	36.5	32 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	6	Under	10.5	37 (62%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	32	Under	30.5	47 (69%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	10	Under	27.5	33 (56%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	31	Under	—	44 (66%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	70	Over	—	52 (75%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	31	Under	—	45 (66%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	46	Over	—	37 (52%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	45	Over	—	45 (69%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	83	Over	—	59 (75%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	30	Under	—	45 (56%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	17	Under	—	32 (46%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	9	Under	—	48 (67%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	54	Over	—	33 (42%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	37	Under	—	39 (60%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	11	Under	—	22 (39%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	6	Under	—	19 (40%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	44	Over	—	33 (58%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	28	Under	—	37 (54%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	0	Under	—	30 (57%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	20	Under	—	31 (46%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	22	Under	—	53 (62%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	34	Under	—	31 (51%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 38.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 6m ago.