NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Downs WR

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

48.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 46%16/35 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 49.8
Graph avg: 46.2
Graph median: 44.03–109
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Targets6.8▲+1.3

Rec4.0▲+0.4

Rec Yds49.8▲+14.4

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps52.2▲+15.1

Snap %80.4%▲+21.7

48.5

2024

22

Sep 22
82

Sep 29
69

Oct 06
66

Oct 13
3

Oct 20
109

Oct 27
60

Nov 03
72

Nov 10
84

Nov 17
27

Nov 24
32

Dec 15
61

Dec 22
22

Dec 29
94

Jan 05
2025

12

Sep 07
51

Sep 14
34

Sep 21
24

Sep 28
54

Oct 05
42

Oct 12
39

Oct 26
57

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
10

Nov 23
44

Nov 30
23

Dec 07
13

Dec 14
65

Dec 22
34

Dec 28
61

Jan 04
2026

37

Sep 13
72

Sep 20
77

Sep 27
16

Oct 04
47

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 48.5

Home 44% 8/18 · avg 45.5
Away 47% 8/17 · avg 47.0
vs TEN 50% 2/4 · avg 50.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 38.5 57% 20/35
O 43.5 51% 18/35
O 48.5 Today 46% 16/35
O 53.5 43% 15/35
O 58.5 37% 13/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds166.2#9
Receptions12.2#9
Targets16.8#21
Yds/Target9.9#1
Rec TD1.0#11

WRs vs TEN · 2026

Each main WR who faced TEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.5

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Nico Collins	56	96.5	-42%
Oct 11	Jaylin Noel	41	46.5	-12%
Oct 04	Zay Flowers	118	95.7	+23%
Oct 04	Rashod Bateman	46	46.8	-2%
Sep 27	Malik Nabers	26	75.8	-66%
Sep 27	Malachi Fields	19	31.8	-40%
Sep 20	DeVonta Smith	117	59.0	+98%
Sep 20	Dontayvion Wicks	74	46.5	+59%
Sep 13	Garrett Wilson	79	73.8	+7%
Sep 13	Isaiah Williams	7	36.0	-81%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%4.8 yds	3%9.0 yds	10%12.0 yds
Short	26%4.2 yds	18%8.8 yds	31%7.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 48.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ PIT	47	Under	54.5	60 (85%)
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	16	Under	70.5	51 (77%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	77	Over	50.5	48 (68%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	72	Over	42.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	37	Under	46.5	48 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	61	Over	—	41 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	34	Under	40.5	35 (61%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	65	Over	26.5	47 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	13	Under	13.5	43 (72%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	23	Under	33.5	46 (66%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	44	Under	32.5	31 (57%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	10	Under	10.5	22 (43%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	3	Under	10.5	36 (47%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	57	Over	37.5	52 (67%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	39	Under	40.5	34 (64%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	42	Under	40.5	30 (51%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	54	Over	54.5	33 (50%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	24	Under	24.5	38 (62%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	34	Under	41.5	29 (51%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	51	Over	55.5	41 (58%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	12	Under	15.5	36 (49%)
2025-01-05	18	vs JAX	94	Over	—	59 (76%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NYG	22	Under	—	47 (61%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TEN	61	Over	—	36 (58%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DEN	32	Under	—	58 (76%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DET	27	Under	—	29 (53%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NYJ	84	Over	—	48 (69%)
2024-11-10	10	vs BUF	72	Over	—	44 (69%)
2024-11-03	9	@ MIN	60	Over	—	27 (50%)
2024-10-27	8	@ HOU	109	Over	—	45 (70%)
2024-10-20	7	vs MIA	3	Under	—	38 (61%)
2024-10-13	6	@ TEN	66	Over	—	55 (79%)
2024-10-06	5	@ JAX	69	Over	—	43 (61%)
2024-09-29	4	vs PIT	82	Over	—	41 (62%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CHI	22	Under	—	32 (57%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.