NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brian Thomas Jr. WR

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

17.5 Rec Yds O -112U -111

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply 50.1% Over

Season avg: 21.0
Graph avg: 29.8
Graph median: 30.00–66
Over the close: 20%2/10

2026 per game

Targets3.4▼-2.8

Rec1.8▼-1.5

Rec Yds21.0▼-27.5

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps30.0▼-22.3

Snap %47.8%▼-29.8

17.5

2025

66

Dec 14
18

Dec 21
39

Dec 28
49

Jan 04
21

Jan 11
2026

40

Sep 13
40

Sep 20
8

Sep 27
17

Oct 04
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 17.5

Home 80% 16/20 · avg 59.4
Away 94% 16/17 · avg 54.6
vs HOU 100% 3/3 · avg 72.3

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 7.5 90% 9/10
O 12.5 80% 8/10
O 17.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 22.5 50% 5/10
O 27.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds167.2#8
Receptions11.8#13
Targets18.9#9
Yds/Target8.8#9
Rec TD1.1#8

WRs vs HOU · 2026

Each main WR who faced HOU this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.4

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Carnell Tate	6	67.0	-91%
Oct 11	Wan'Dale Robinson	53	30.8	+72%
Oct 04	CeeDee Lamb	189	79.5	+138%
Oct 04	George Pickens	75	70.0	+7%
Sep 27	Josh Downs	77	43.0	+79%
Sep 27	Laquon Treadwell	20	34.2	-42%
Sep 20	Tee Higgins	95	82.0	+16%
Sep 20	Ja'Marr Chase	75	53.5	+40%
Sep 13	Keon Coleman	1	55.8	-98%
Sep 13	Khalil Shakir	50	51.5	-3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%3.1 yds	0%	20%13.0 yds
Short	37%7.5 yds	2%0.0 yds	24%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 17.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	0	Under	24.5	37 (51%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	17	Under	27.5	38 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	8	Under	34.5	23 (37%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	40	Over	34.5	32 (54%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	40	Over	38.5	20 (35%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	21	Over	21.5	43 (77%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	49	Over	52.5	35 (57%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	39	Over	39.5	54 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	18	Over	18.5	51 (73%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	66	Over	66.5	48 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 17.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.