NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Evan Engram TE

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

22.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 22.3
Graph avg: 22.6
Graph median: 18.00–55
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Targets3.2▼-1.4

Rec2.0▼-0.9

Rec Yds22.3▼-4.7

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps34.8▲+6.4

Snap %57.0%▲+15.1

22.5

2025

21

Dec 25
45

Jan 04
7

Jan 17
19

Jan 25
2026

43

Sep 14
17

Sep 20
0

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
55

Oct 11
13

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 22.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 26.3
Away 60% 9/15 · avg 34.1
vs ARI No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 12.5 70% 7/10
O 17.5 50% 5/10
O 22.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 27.5 30% 3/10
O 32.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds78.7#2
Receptions7.2#2
Targets8.9#3
Yds/Target8.8#2
Rec TD1.0#3

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.5

Avg diff %-16%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Tyler Higbee	22	56.0	-61%
Oct 11	Sam LaPorta	88	57.0	+54%
Oct 04	Isaiah Likely	66	63.4	+4%
Sep 27	George Kittle	82	46.5	+76%
Sep 20	AJ Barner	8	26.0	-69%
Sep 13	Charlie Kolar	0	26.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%26.8 yds	0%	0%
Short	36%4.4 yds	21%3.1 yds	30%4.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 22.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	13	Under	21.5	31 (52%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	55	Over	18.5	30 (48%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	6	Under	17.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	0	Under	21.5	40 (60%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	17	Under	24.5	32 (52%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	43	Over	23.5	32 (63%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	19	Under	20.5	19 (33%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	7	Under	21.5	34 (47%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	45	Over	45.5	23 (39%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	21	Under	18.5	22 (31%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 22.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 15m ago.