NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Mike Evans WR

SF vs WAS · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

72.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 32%9/28 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 65.2
Graph avg: 63.9
Graph median: 58.50–159
Over the close: 46%6/13

2026 per game

Targets6.8▼-1.0

Rec4.8▲+1.0

Rec Yds65.2▲+19.2

Rec TD0.6▲+0.2

Snaps34.4▼-10.2

Snap %56.8%▼-8.8

72.5

2024

61

Sep 08
42

Sep 15
17

Sep 22
94

Sep 29
62

Oct 03
34

Oct 13
25

Oct 21
68

Nov 24
118

Dec 01
69

Dec 08
159

Dec 15
69

Dec 22
97

Dec 29
89

Jan 05
92

Jan 12
2025

51

Sep 07
56

Sep 15
33

Sep 21
0

Oct 20
132

Dec 11
31

Dec 21
31

Dec 28
34

Jan 03
2026

49

Sep 10
54

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
76

Oct 04
113

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 72.5

Home 43% 6/14 · avg 64.8
Away 21% 3/14 · avg 63.1
vs WAS 50% 1/2 · avg 76.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 52.5 57% 16/28
O 62.5 43% 12/28
O 72.5 Today 32% 9/28
O 82.5 29% 8/28
O 92.5 21% 6/28

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds158.1#10
Receptions13.6#2
Targets21.6#2
Yds/Target7.3#27
Rec TD1.0#12

WRs vs WAS · 2026

Each main WR who faced WAS this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.7

Avg diff %+6%

Beat their average50% (5/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Malik Nabers	121	52.0	+133%
Oct 11	Malachi Fields	20	31.5	-37%
Oct 04	Josh Downs	16	58.2	-73%
Oct 04	Laquon Treadwell	42	28.8	+46%
Sep 27	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	128	117.8	+9%
Sep 27	Rashid Shaheed	14	29.6	-53%
Sep 20	CeeDee Lamb	153	88.5	+73%
Sep 20	George Pickens	40	78.8	-49%
Sep 13	DeVonta Smith	53	91.0	-42%
Sep 13	Dontayvion Wicks	73	46.8	+56%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.3 yds	5%29.4 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.6 yds	26%5.6 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%4.0 yds#31	4%18.8 yds#7	8%12.8 yds#10
Short	30%5.3 yds#24	16%8.9 yds#3	34%5.2 yds#22

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%15.8 yds	9%14.7 yds	13%7.9 yds
Short	29%9.2 yds	16%7.8 yds	19%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	5	6.8	34	24.5%
2	George Kittle TE	5	5.6	28	20.7%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	5	5.0	25	18.0%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	5	4.0	20	14.3%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	2	1.5	3	5.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	5	1.0	5	3.7%
10	Luke Farrell TE	5	0.8	4	2.7%

Game log · 28 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 72.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ SEA	113	Over	51.5	38 (63%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	76	Over	44.5	39 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	34	Under	55.5	18 (33%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	54	Under	49.5	28 (54%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	49	Under	49.5	49 (75%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	34	Under	64.5	50 (75%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	31	Under	30.5	50 (75%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	31	Under	65.5	42 (66%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	132	Over	132.5	38 (55%)
2025-10-20	7	@ DET	0	Under	49.5	14 (20%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NYJ	33	Under	25.5	52 (72%)
2025-09-15	2	@ HOU	56	Under	50.5	63 (79%)
2025-09-07	1	@ ATL	51	Under	71.5	48 (83%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs WAS	92	Over	—	39 (81%)
2025-01-05	18	vs NO	89	Over	—	59 (88%)
2024-12-29	17	vs CAR	97	Over	—	48 (62%)
2024-12-22	16	@ DAL	69	Under	—	58 (81%)
2024-12-15	15	@ LAC	159	Over	—	47 (65%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LV	69	Under	—	51 (82%)
2024-12-01	13	@ CAR	118	Over	—	67 (84%)
2024-11-24	12	@ NYG	68	Under	—	39 (60%)
2024-10-21	7	vs BAL	25	Under	—	23 (28%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NO	34	Under	—	44 (57%)
2024-10-03	5	@ ATL	62	Under	—	46 (87%)
2024-09-29	4	vs PHI	94	Over	—	59 (77%)
2024-09-22	3	vs DEN	17	Under	—	47 (82%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DET	42	Under	—	38 (79%)
2024-09-08	1	vs WAS	61	Under	—	45 (70%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 69.5PrizePicks 72.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.