NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Darren Waller TE

CAR vs PHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 54%7/13 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 37.0
Graph avg: 33.2
Graph median: 33.00–78
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Targets4.8▲+1.0

Rec3.2▲+0.6

Rec Yds37.0▲+5.6

Rec TD0.5▼-0.2

Snaps33.0▲+7.2

Snap %45.8%▲+0.8

29.5

2025

27

Sep 29
78

Oct 05
12

Oct 12
0

Oct 19
47

Nov 30
13

Dec 07
66

Dec 15
40

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
2026

28

Sep 13
33

Sep 20
51

Sep 27
36

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 43% 3/7 · avg 27.1
Away 67% 4/6 · avg 40.2
vs PHI No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 69% 9/13
O 24.5 69% 9/13
O 29.5 Today 54% 7/13
O 34.5 46% 6/13
O 39.5 38% 5/13

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds34.3#31
Receptions4.3#25
Targets5.9#29
Yds/Target5.8#28
Rec TD0.1#31

TEs vs PHI · 2026

Each main TE who faced PHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.4

Avg diff %+22%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Brenton Strange	68	41.8	+63%
Oct 04	Tyler Higbee	67	52.3	+28%
Sep 28	Colston Loveland	31	19.8	+57%
Sep 20	Gunnar Helm	13	11.8	+11%
Sep 13	Chig Okonkwo	16	32.5	-51%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CAR offense

CAR offense: Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.2 yds	4%16.7 yds	6%17.1 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	15%8.5 yds	34%5.1 yds

Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%10.4 yds#15	3%21.6 yds#3	7%11.8 yds#14
Short	33%5.7 yds#17	20%6.3 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#23

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%34.0 yds	2%20.0 yds	7%7.3 yds
Short	36%5.9 yds	20%8.8 yds	32%5.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CAR targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tetairoa McMillan WR	4	9.8	39	26.9%
2	Jalen Coker WR	3	7.3	22	21.4%
3	Darren Waller TE	4	4.8	19	12.4%
4	Tommy Tremble TE	4	3.8	15	10.2%
5	Xavier Legette WR	2	3.0	6	9.2%
6	John Metchie III WR	3	3.3	10	8.2%
7	Chuba Hubbard RB	4	2.8	11	7.4%
8	Brycen Tremayne WR	4	2.2	9	5.5%
9	Mitchell Evans TE	4	1.8	7	4.7%
10	Jonathon Brooks RB	2	1.5	3	4.5%

Game log · 13 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DET	36	Over	37.5	40 (53%)
2026-09-27	3	@ CLE	51	Over	20.5	39 (51%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ATL	33	Over	16.5	29 (44%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CHI	28	Under	16.5	24 (35%)
2025-12-28	17	vs TB	0	Under	0.5	21 (38%)
2025-12-21	16	vs CIN	40	Over	32.5	29 (49%)
2025-12-15	15	@ PIT	66	Over	34.5	27 (54%)
2025-12-07	14	@ NYJ	13	Under	19.5	24 (37%)
2025-11-30	13	vs NO	47	Over	24.5	28 (47%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CLE	0	Under	20.5	16 (28%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LAC	12	Under	—	39 (66%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CAR	78	Over	—	32 (58%)
2025-09-29	4	vs NYJ	27	Under	—	16 (28%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 4m ago.