NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyler Warren TE

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

49.5 Rec Yds O -105U -125

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 48.0% Over

Season avg: 42.6
Graph avg: 43.8
Graph median: 42.013–99
Over the close: 25%5/20

2026 per game

Targets7.2▲+0.6

Rec6.0▲+1.5

Rec Yds42.6▼-5.5

Rec TD0.4▲+0.2

Snaps59.6▲+6.7

Snap %91.0%▲+7.2

49.5

2025

38

Sep 21
70

Sep 28
44

Oct 05
63

Oct 12
69

Oct 19
53

Oct 26
26

Nov 02
99

Nov 09
45

Nov 23
22

Nov 30
15

Dec 07
19

Dec 14
30

Dec 22
43

Dec 28
26

Jan 04
2026

13

Sep 13
21

Sep 20
55

Sep 27
41

Oct 04
83

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 49.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 52.5
Away 27% 3/11 · avg 41.2
vs TEN 50% 1/2 · avg 45.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 39.5 55% 11/20
O 44.5 40% 8/20
O 49.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 54.5 30% 6/20
O 59.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds53.4#15
Receptions5.5#15
Targets7.2#18
Yds/Target7.4#15
Rec TD0.6#7

TEs vs TEN · 2026

Each main TE who faced TEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-30.5

Avg diff %-56%

Beat their average0% (0/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Dalton Schultz	30	53.5	-44%
Oct 04	Mark Andrews	27	37.5	-28%
Sep 27	Isaiah Likely	13	67.8	-81%
Sep 20	Dallas Goedert	4	57.5	-93%
Sep 13	Kenyon Sadiq	21	31.2	-33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%14.5 yds	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	39%4.7 yds	27%6.7 yds	29%3.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 49.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ PIT	83	Over	43.5	67 (94%)
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	41	Under	59.5	56 (85%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	55	Over	46.5	67 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	21	Under	42.5	58 (89%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	13	Under	47.5	50 (93%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	26	Under	49.5	53 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	43	Under	49.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	30	Under	35.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	19	Under	16.5	49 (82%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	15	Under	20.5	65 (93%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	22	Under	50.5	47 (87%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	45	Under	50.5	44 (86%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	99	Over	60.5	68 (88%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	26	Under	61.5	66 (85%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	53	Over	55.5	39 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	69	Over	70.5	55 (92%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	63	Over	70.5	52 (88%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	44	Under	62.5	47 (71%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	70	Over	55.5	54 (89%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	38	Under	49.5	39 (68%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 48.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 4m ago.