NFL Prop Research

CK

Cole Kmet TE

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

9.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

BookESPN BET · 9.5FanDuel · 9.5Caesars · 8.5Fanatics · 10.5

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg

11.2

Graph avg

13.3

Graph median

13.50–35

Over the close

40%4/10

2026 per game

Targets1.8▼-1.1

Rec1.0▼-0.8

Rec Yds11.2▼-9.8

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps46.8▼-1.7

Snap %60.2%▼-10.6

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

• Home 64% 14/22 · avg 20.9
• Away 76% 13/17 · avg 26.4
• vs ATL No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

• O 4.5 70% 7/10
• O 9.5 Today 60% 6/10
• O 14.5 40% 4/10
• O 19.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds62.0#7
• Receptions5.9#9
• Targets8.3#7
• Yds/Target7.5#13
• Rec TD0.5#10

TEs vs ATL · 2026

Each main TE who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.6

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	BAL Mark Andrews	28	37.2	-25%
Oct 05	NO Juwan Johnson	59	47.2	+25%
Sep 24	GB Tucker Kraft	26	46.5	-44%
Sep 20	CAR Darren Waller	33	38.3	-14%
Sep 13	PIT Pat Freiermuth	46	30.8	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%7.3 yds	0%	0%
Short	35%7.0 yds	26%4.0 yds	26%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · CHI 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 9.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	8	Under	9.5	29 (42%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	13	Over	9.5	68 (73%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	0	Under	8.5	43 (60%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	0	Under	13.5	51 (69%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	35	Over	13.5	43 (57%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	31	Over	10.5	62 (77%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	0	Under	0.5	43 (55%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	16	Over	16.5	49 (89%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	16	Over	16.5	40 (61%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	14	Over	10.5	49 (77%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 5m ago.