NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cole Kmet TE

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

9.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 69%27/39 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 11.2
Graph avg: 23.3
Graph median: 16.00–97
Over the close: 36%8/22

2026 per game

Targets1.8▼-1.1

Rec1.0▼-0.8

Rec Yds11.2▼-9.8

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps46.8▼-1.7

Snap %60.2%▼-10.6

9.5

2024

4

Sep 08
27

Sep 15
97

Sep 22
34

Sep 29
57

Oct 06
70

Oct 13
14

Oct 27
13

Nov 10
42

Nov 17
64

Nov 24
26

Nov 28
0

Dec 08
14

Dec 16
9

Dec 22
0

Dec 26
3

Jan 05
2025

31

Sep 08
29

Sep 14
10

Sep 21
46

Sep 28
0

Oct 13
16

Oct 19
10

Nov 02
5

Nov 09
45

Nov 16
3

Nov 23
36

Nov 28
42

Dec 07
28

Dec 14
14

Dec 20
16

Dec 28
16

Jan 04
0

Jan 10
31

Jan 18
2026

35

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
0

Sep 28
13

Oct 04
8

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

Home 64% 14/22 · avg 20.9
Away 76% 13/17 · avg 26.4
vs ATL No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 77% 30/39
O 9.5 Today 69% 27/39
O 14.5 51% 20/39
O 19.5 44% 17/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds62.0#7
Receptions5.9#9
Targets8.3#7
Yds/Target7.5#13
Rec TD0.5#10

TEs vs ATL · 2026

Each main TE who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.6

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Mark Andrews	28	37.2	-25%
Oct 05	Juwan Johnson	59	47.2	+25%
Sep 24	Tucker Kraft	26	46.5	-44%
Sep 20	Darren Waller	33	38.3	-14%
Sep 13	Pat Freiermuth	46	30.8	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%7.3 yds	0%	0%
Short	35%7.0 yds	26%4.0 yds	26%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 9.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	8	Under	9.5	29 (42%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	13	Over	9.5	68 (73%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	0	Under	8.5	43 (60%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	0	Under	13.5	51 (69%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	35	Over	13.5	43 (57%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	31	Over	10.5	62 (77%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	0	Under	0.5	43 (55%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	16	Over	16.5	49 (89%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	16	Over	16.5	40 (61%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	14	Over	10.5	49 (77%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	28	Over	11.5	48 (73%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	42	Over	—	53 (76%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	36	Over	10.5	58 (67%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	3	Under	3.5	41 (63%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	45	Over	45.5	59 (79%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	5	Under	9.5	45 (66%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	10	Over	17.5	21 (26%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	16	Over	20.5	28 (41%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	0	Under	10.5	33 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	46	Over	50.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DAL	10	Over	10.5	55 (93%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	29	Over	17.5	61 (90%)
2025-09-08	1	vs MIN	31	Over	0.5	60 (90%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	3	Under	—	61 (98%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	0	Under	—	57 (93%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	9	Under	—	57 (89%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	14	Over	—	62 (93%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	0	Under	—	49 (92%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	26	Over	—	66 (99%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	64	Over	—	76 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	42	Over	—	70 (97%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	13	Over	—	56 (93%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	14	Over	—	49 (78%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	70	Over	—	57 (86%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	57	Over	—	63 (84%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	34	Over	—	54 (90%)
2024-09-22	3	@ IND	97	Over	—	73 (81%)
2024-09-15	2	@ HOU	27	Over	—	54 (77%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	4	Under	—	27 (48%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.