NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Noah Gray TE

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

12.5 Rec Yds O -109U -115

Hit rate · All 61%22/36 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 15.2
Graph avg: 19.2
Graph median: 17.00–66
Over the close: 33%6/18

2026 per game

Targets2.0▼-0.6

Rec1.5+0.0

Rec Yds15.2▲+2.5

Rec TD0.0+0.0

Snaps38.0▲+3.3

Snap %59.0%▲+6.1

12.5

2024

37

Sep 05
13

Sep 22
40

Sep 29
29

Oct 07
66

Oct 20
23

Oct 27
0

Nov 04
18

Nov 10
23

Nov 17
66

Nov 24
58

Nov 29
26

Dec 08
21

Dec 15
10

Dec 21
6

Dec 25
1

Jan 05
13

Jan 18
2

Feb 09
2025

3

Sep 05
1

Sep 14
17

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
25

Oct 12
28

Oct 19
23

Oct 27
0

Nov 02
9

Nov 16
25

Nov 23
14

Dec 07
0

Dec 21
2

Dec 25
30

Jan 04
2026

5

Sep 14
0

Sep 20
39

Sep 27
17

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 12.5

Home 61% 11/18 · avg 17.5
Away 61% 11/18 · avg 20.9
vs LAC 67% 2/3 · avg 23.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 75% 27/36
O 7.5 67% 24/36
O 12.5 Today 61% 22/36
O 17.5 47% 17/36
O 22.5 42% 15/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds46.4#20
Receptions4.1#28
Targets5.9#30
Yds/Target7.9#8
Rec TD0.2#26

TEs vs LAC · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.4

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Evan Engram	55	15.8	+248%
Oct 04	AJ Barner	12	25.2	-52%
Sep 27	Dalton Kincaid	38	59.8	-36%
Sep 20	Michael Mayer	23	37.0	-38%
Sep 13	Trey McBride	95	53.2	+78%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%12.0 yds	0%	8%0.0 yds
Short	28%4.7 yds	28%5.3 yds	28%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 12.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	17	Over	8.5	41 (68%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	39	Over	0.5	33 (63%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	0	Under	11.5	40 (50%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	5	Under	9.5	38 (55%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LV	30	Over	17.5	36 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	2	Under	10.5	21 (49%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	0	Under	15.5	23 (51%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	14	Over	0.5	29 (45%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	25	Over	20.5	31 (32%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	9	Under	10.5	36 (51%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	0	Under	0.5	22 (37%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	23	Over	25.5	38 (55%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	28	Over	30.5	48 (59%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	25	Over	25.5	48 (75%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	1	Under	1.5	41 (56%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	17	Over	10.5	49 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	1	Under	1.5	39 (65%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	3	Under	19.5	25 (41%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	2	Under	—	18 (32%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	13	Over	—	29 (57%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DEN	1	Under	—	4 (12%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	6	Under	—	28 (45%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	10	Under	—	36 (49%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	21	Over	—	41 (55%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	26	Over	—	42 (61%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	58	Over	—	44 (62%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	66	Over	—	44 (59%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	23	Over	—	42 (76%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	18	Over	—	39 (57%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	0	Under	—	59 (69%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	23	Over	—	52 (72%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	66	Over	—	47 (67%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	29	Over	—	51 (61%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	40	Over	—	32 (52%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	13	Over	—	37 (50%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	37	Over	—	29 (54%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 12.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.