NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Bucky Irving RB

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

10.5 Rec Yds O -115U -109

Hit rate · All 67%22/33 Odds imply 50.6% Over

Season avg: 14.2
Graph avg: 22.6
Graph median: 14.0-5–102
Over the close: 40%6/15

2026 per game

Carries15.4▼-1.9

Rush Yds81.2▲+22.4

Rush TD0.4▲+0.3

Targets3.6▲+0.1

Rec3.0+0.0

Rec Yds14.2▼-13.5

Snaps39.6▼-2.5

Snap %60.8%▼-0.8

10.5

2024

14

Sep 08
0

Sep 15
14

Sep 22
6

Sep 29
12

Oct 03
24

Oct 13
54

Oct 21
40

Oct 27
10

Nov 04
14

Nov 10
64

Nov 24
33

Dec 01
15

Dec 08
-4

Dec 15
24

Dec 22
77

Dec 29
-5

Jan 05
6

Jan 12
2025

8

Sep 07
50

Sep 15
33

Sep 21
102

Sep 28
20

Nov 30
26

Dec 07
11

Dec 11
0

Dec 21
14

Dec 28
13

Jan 03
2026

48

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
12

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
10

Oct 08
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 10.5

Home 74% 14/19 · avg 23.8
Away 57% 8/14 · avg 20.9
vs PIT No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 85% 28/33
O 5.5 82% 27/33
O 10.5 Today 67% 22/33
O 15.5 39% 13/33
O 20.5 36% 12/33

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds87.8#21
Yds/Carry4.2#18
Rush TD0.4#31
Targets6.2#8
Rec Yds36.4#7

RBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main RB who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.9

Avg diff %+75%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jonathan Taylor	37	17.2	+114%
Oct 01	Raheim Sanders	7	16.8	-58%
Sep 27	Chase Brown	8	29.0	-72%
Sep 20	Rhamondre Stevenson	3	27.0	-89%
Sep 13	Bijan Robinson	90	15.5	+481%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%72.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	49%4.9 yds	5%6.5 yds	44%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 33 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 10.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	10	Under	13.5	39 (54%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	0	Under	12.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	12	Over	15.5	36 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	1	Under	17.5	51 (78%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	48	Over	13.5	35 (61%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	13	Over	21.5	42 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	14	Over	12.5	36 (54%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	40 (62%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	11	Over	15.5	37 (54%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	26	Over	16.5	36 (49%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	20	Over	20.5	32 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	102	Over	85.5	44 (61%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NYJ	33	Over	21.5	53 (74%)
2025-09-15	2	@ HOU	50	Over	15.5	57 (71%)
2025-09-07	1	@ ATL	8	Under	20.5	44 (76%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs WAS	6	Under	—	33 (69%)
2025-01-05	18	vs NO	-5	Under	—	48 (72%)
2024-12-29	17	vs CAR	77	Over	—	42 (55%)
2024-12-22	16	@ DAL	24	Over	—	41 (57%)
2024-12-15	15	@ LAC	-4	Under	—	32 (44%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LV	15	Over	—	10 (16%)
2024-12-01	13	@ CAR	33	Over	—	43 (54%)
2024-11-24	12	@ NYG	64	Over	—	34 (52%)
2024-11-10	10	vs SF	14	Over	—	28 (46%)
2024-11-04	9	@ KC	10	Under	—	19 (35%)
2024-10-27	8	vs ATL	40	Over	—	31 (42%)
2024-10-21	7	vs BAL	54	Over	—	29 (35%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NO	24	Over	—	49 (64%)
2024-10-03	5	@ ATL	12	Over	—	23 (43%)
2024-09-29	4	vs PHI	6	Under	—	32 (42%)
2024-09-22	3	vs DEN	14	Over	—	18 (32%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DET	0	Under	—	17 (35%)
2024-09-08	1	vs WAS	14	Over	—	20 (31%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 10.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.