NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Bijan Robinson RB

ATL vs CHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

28.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 30.4
Graph avg: 42.4
Graph median: 38.02–106
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Carries20.4▲+3.5

Rush Yds116.0▲+29.1

Rush TD0.8▲+0.4

Targets5.0▼-1.1

Rec3.6▼-1.0

Rec Yds30.4▼-17.8

Snaps43.6▼-7.0

Snap %68.2%▼-10.0

28.5

2025

39

Sep 21
106

Sep 28
68

Oct 13
52

Oct 19
23

Oct 26
50

Nov 02
4

Nov 09
39

Nov 16
37

Nov 23
51

Nov 30
8

Dec 07
82

Dec 11
92

Dec 21
34

Dec 29
10

Jan 04
2026

90

Sep 13
9

Sep 20
19

Sep 24
2

Oct 05
32

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 28.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 36.8
Away 45% 9/20 · avg 35.2
vs CHI No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 75% 15/20
O 23.5 65% 13/20
O 28.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 33.5 60% 12/20
O 38.5 50% 10/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds99.5#12
Yds/Carry4.4#12
Rush TD0.6#17
Targets4.6#27
Rec Yds30.2#19

RBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main RB who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.3

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	MarShawn Lloyd	6	12.2	-51%
Oct 04	Isaiah Davis	0	3.0	-100%
Sep 28	Will Shipley	11	5.0	+120%
Sep 20	Aaron Jones	0	18.0	-100%
Sep 13	Chuba Hubbard	38	15.3	+148%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.1 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%11.8 yds
Short	33%6.4 yds	19%6.6 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.1 yds#12	4%21.1 yds#5	9%15.2 yds#5
Short	31%4.9 yds#30	19%8.5 yds#6	30%6.2 yds#6

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	52%7.0 yds	15%7.4 yds	30%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	5	7.2	36	28.6%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	5	5.0	25	21.0%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	5	3.4	17	13.7%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	5	3.0	15	11.3%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Zachariah Branch WR	5	1.6	8	6.2%
7	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	5	1.4	7	5.7%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	3	1.3	4	4.7%
9	Brian Robinson RB	5	0.8	4	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 28.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs BAL	32	Over	27.5	52 (81%)
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	2	Under	36.5	34 (60%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	19	Under	37.5	51 (72%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CAR	9	Under	42.5	35 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PIT	90	Over	33.5	46 (77%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	10	Under	39.5	53 (84%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	34	Over	43.5	42 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	92	Over	75.5	54 (70%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	82	Over	82.5	64 (90%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	8	Under	39.5	43 (67%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	51	Over	55.5	60 (87%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	37	Over	42.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	39	Over	28.5	56 (85%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	4	Under	10.5	54 (86%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	50	Over	40.5	54 (96%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	23	Under	35.5	30 (60%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	52	Over	58.5	57 (88%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	68	Over	34.5	52 (74%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	106	Over	105.5	45 (69%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	39	Over	45.5	53 (80%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 28.5Underdog 28.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 7m ago.