NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Bijan Robinson RB

ATL vs CHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

28.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 51%20/39 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 30.4
Graph avg: 36.0
Graph median: 32.02–106
Over the close: 36%8/22

2026 per game

Carries20.4▲+3.5

Rush Yds116.0▲+29.1

Rush TD0.8▲+0.4

Targets5.0▼-1.1

Rec3.6▼-1.0

Rec Yds30.4▼-17.8

Snaps43.6▼-7.0

Snap %68.2%▼-10.0

28.5

2024

43

Sep 08
25

Sep 16
21

Sep 22
46

Sep 29
16

Oct 03
10

Oct 13
40

Oct 20
43

Oct 27
59

Nov 03
28

Nov 10
28

Nov 17
33

Dec 01
9

Dec 08
10

Dec 16
9

Dec 22
8

Dec 29
3

Jan 05
2025

100

Sep 07
25

Sep 14
39

Sep 21
106

Sep 28
68

Oct 13
52

Oct 19
23

Oct 26
50

Nov 02
4

Nov 09
39

Nov 16
37

Nov 23
51

Nov 30
8

Dec 07
82

Dec 11
92

Dec 21
34

Dec 29
10

Jan 04
2026

90

Sep 13
9

Sep 20
19

Sep 24
2

Oct 05
32

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 28.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 36.8
Away 45% 9/20 · avg 35.2
vs CHI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 69% 27/39
O 23.5 62% 24/39
O 28.5 Today 51% 20/39
O 33.5 46% 18/39
O 38.5 41% 16/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds99.5#12
Yds/Carry4.4#12
Rush TD0.6#17
Targets4.6#27
Rec Yds30.2#19

RBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main RB who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.3

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	MarShawn Lloyd	6	12.2	-51%
Oct 04	Isaiah Davis	0	3.0	-100%
Sep 28	Will Shipley	11	5.0	+120%
Sep 20	Aaron Jones	0	18.0	-100%
Sep 13	Chuba Hubbard	38	15.3	+148%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.1 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%11.8 yds
Short	33%6.4 yds	19%6.6 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.1 yds#12	4%21.1 yds#5	9%15.2 yds#5
Short	31%4.9 yds#30	19%8.5 yds#6	30%6.2 yds#6

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	52%7.0 yds	15%7.4 yds	30%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	5	7.2	36	28.6%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	5	5.0	25	21.0%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	5	3.4	17	13.7%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	5	3.0	15	11.3%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Zachariah Branch WR	5	1.6	8	6.2%
7	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	5	1.4	7	5.7%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	3	1.3	4	4.7%
9	Brian Robinson RB	5	0.8	4	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 28.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs BAL	32	Over	27.5	52 (81%)
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	2	Under	36.5	34 (60%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	19	Under	37.5	51 (72%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CAR	9	Under	42.5	35 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PIT	90	Over	33.5	46 (77%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	10	Under	39.5	53 (84%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	34	Over	43.5	42 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	92	Over	75.5	54 (70%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	82	Over	82.5	64 (90%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	8	Under	39.5	43 (67%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	51	Over	55.5	60 (87%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	37	Over	42.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	39	Over	28.5	56 (85%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	4	Under	10.5	54 (86%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	50	Over	40.5	54 (96%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	23	Under	35.5	30 (60%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	52	Over	58.5	57 (88%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	68	Over	34.5	52 (74%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	106	Over	105.5	45 (69%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	39	Over	45.5	53 (80%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	25	Under	25.5	43 (65%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TB	100	Over	24.5	63 (83%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CAR	3	Under	—	69 (87%)
2024-12-29	17	@ WAS	8	Under	—	58 (91%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NYG	9	Under	—	50 (75%)
2024-12-16	15	@ LV	10	Under	—	44 (76%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIN	9	Under	—	63 (85%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LAC	33	Over	—	61 (75%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	28	Under	—	42 (71%)
2024-11-10	10	@ NO	28	Under	—	61 (78%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DAL	59	Over	—	42 (74%)
2024-10-27	8	@ TB	43	Over	—	42 (68%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	40	Over	—	50 (68%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CAR	10	Under	—	39 (56%)
2024-10-03	5	vs TB	16	Under	—	58 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NO	46	Over	—	36 (64%)
2024-09-22	3	vs KC	21	Under	—	50 (82%)
2024-09-16	2	@ PHI	25	Under	—	46 (75%)
2024-09-08	1	vs PIT	43	Over	—	50 (89%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 28.5Underdog 28.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 5m ago.