NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

James Cook III RB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

7.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 60%26/43 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 6.2
Graph avg: 15.7
Graph median: 11.00–66
Over the close: 35%8/23

2026 per game

Carries19.0▲+0.7

Rush Yds106.4▲+12.5

Rush TD1.0▲+0.4

Targets2.2▼-0.2

Rec1.4▼-0.5

Rec Yds6.2▼-10.6

Snaps43.2▲+4.9

Snap %66.8%▲+9.1

7.5

2024

9

Sep 29
17

Oct 06
0

Oct 20
22

Oct 27
25

Nov 03
5

Nov 10
7

Nov 17
13

Dec 01
9

Dec 08
28

Dec 15
26

Dec 22
0

Dec 29
0

Jan 05
0

Jan 12
15

Jan 19
49

Jan 26
2025

58

Sep 07
3

Sep 14
10

Sep 18
18

Sep 28
0

Oct 05
0

Oct 13
0

Oct 26
11

Nov 02
24

Nov 09
66

Nov 16
13

Nov 20
33

Nov 30
31

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
17

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
0

Jan 04
5

Jan 11
24

Jan 17
2026

12

Sep 13
4

Sep 17
0

Sep 27
8

Oct 04
7

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 43 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

Home 59% 13/22 · avg 17.0
Away 62% 13/21 · avg 14.2
vs LV No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 79% 34/43
O 7.5 Today 60% 26/43
O 12.5 46% 20/43
O 17.5 33% 14/43

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LV

What LV allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds112.0#6
Yds/Carry4.6#7
Rush TD0.7#14
Targets5.6#14
Rec Yds28.0#23

RBs vs LV · 2026

Each main RB who faced LV this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.0

Avg diff %-3%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Rhamondre Stevenson	21	22.5	-7%
Oct 04	Kenneth Walker III	2	27.3	-93%
Sep 27	Travis Etienne	13	19.0	-32%
Sep 20	Alec Ingold	0	17.5	-100%
Sep 13	De'Von Achane	30	9.5	+216%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	38%2.4 yds	4%0.0 yds	54%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 43 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	7	Under	10.5	40 (62%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	8	Over	7.5	35 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	0	Under	11.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	4	Under	18.5	55 (74%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	12	Over	19.5	42 (72%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	24	Over	14.5	50 (64%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	5	Under	5.5	38 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	3	Under	12.5	39 (51%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	17	Over	17.5	28 (56%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	4	Under	17.5	47 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	31	Over	13.5	48 (75%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	33	Over	20.5	45 (61%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	13	Over	10.5	36 (55%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	66	Over	11.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	24	Over	24.5	34 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	11	Over	0.5	50 (76%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	0	Under	10.5	28 (44%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	0	Under	10.5	30 (53%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	0	Under	10.5	49 (72%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	18	Over	15.5	43 (73%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	10	Over	10.5	40 (67%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	3	Under	10.5	35 (47%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	58	Over	60.5	48 (56%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	49	Over	—	33 (45%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	15	Over	—	32 (52%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	0	Under	—	34 (45%)
2025-01-05	18	@ NE	0	Under	—	15 (22%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	32 (46%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	26	Over	—	21 (36%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	28	Over	—	29 (41%)
2024-12-08	14	@ LA	9	Over	—	27 (45%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SF	13	Over	—	26 (45%)
2024-11-17	11	vs KC	7	Under	—	27 (37%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	5	Under	—	41 (55%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	25	Over	—	36 (55%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	22	Over	—	42 (55%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	0	Under	—	29 (53%)
2024-10-06	5	@ HOU	17	Over	—	36 (59%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	9	Over	—	33 (56%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	48	Over	—	32 (50%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	17	Over	—	21 (47%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	32	Over	—	38 (61%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5PrizePicks 7.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.