NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Courtland Sutton WR

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

35.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 20.5
Graph avg: 42.2
Graph median: 35.04–113
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Targets4.7▼-2.6

Rec2.2▼-2.1

Rec Yds20.5▼-36.7

Rec TD0.2▼-0.3

Snaps47.7▼-9.7

Snap %77.8%▼-7.9

35.5

2025

17

Oct 12
87

Oct 19
67

Oct 26
30

Nov 02
24

Nov 06
59

Nov 16
62

Nov 30
62

Dec 07
113

Dec 14
86

Dec 21
40

Dec 25
5

Jan 04
53

Jan 17
17

Jan 25
2026

11

Sep 14
25

Sep 20
46

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
18

Oct 11
19

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 35.5

Home 64% 14/22 · avg 57.5
Away 70% 14/20 · avg 55.1
vs ARI No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 25.5 55% 11/20
O 30.5 50% 10/20
O 35.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 40.5 45% 9/20
O 45.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds133.9#22
Receptions9.4#30
Targets14.9#30
Yds/Target9.0#6
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-8.9

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average25% (3/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	80	112.3	-29%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	39	88.2	-56%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	69	75.8	-9%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	47	57.2	-18%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	76.4	+47%
Oct 04	Charlie Jones	0	33.0	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	73.0	-53%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	80	31.5	+154%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	112.4	+38%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	31.8	-37%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	51.2	-61%
Sep 13	Quentin Johnston	17	37.0	-54%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%7.1 yds	6%0.0 yds	13%3.6 yds
Short	30%2.8 yds	4%4.5 yds	35%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 35.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	19	Under	32.5	46 (77%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	18	Under	39.5	50 (81%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	4	Under	39.5	48 (73%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	46	Over	36.5	58 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	25	Under	39.5	45 (73%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	11	Under	42.5	39 (76%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	17	Under	48.5	54 (93%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	53	Over	55.5	61 (85%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	5	Under	5.5	46 (78%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	40	Over	61.5	59 (82%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	86	Over	58.5	62 (94%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	113	Over	—	60 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	62	Over	62.5	48 (65%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	62	Over	52.5	57 (81%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	59	Over	34.5	57 (92%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	24	Under	24.5	53 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	30	Under	35.5	58 (92%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	67	Over	60.5	53 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	87	Over	79.5	76 (94%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	17	Under	17.5	48 (80%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 35.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 14m ago.