NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jaylen Waddle WR

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

52.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 38.0
Graph avg: 52.0
Graph median: 44.00–138
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Targets6.3▲+0.1

Rec3.7▼-0.3

Rec Yds38.0▼-18.9

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps41.5▼-3.6

Snap %67.8%▼-9.8

52.5

2025

39

Sep 18
48

Sep 29
110

Oct 05
95

Oct 12
15

Oct 19
99

Oct 26
82

Oct 30
84

Nov 09
52

Nov 16
40

Nov 30
50

Dec 07
26

Dec 15
72

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
2026

2

Sep 14
138

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
35

Oct 04
19

Oct 11
24

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 52.5

Home 47% 9/19 · avg 64.4
Away 22% 4/18 · avg 36.6
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 45.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 42.5 50% 10/20
O 47.5 50% 10/20
O 52.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 57.5 35% 7/20
O 62.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds133.9#22
Receptions9.4#30
Targets14.9#30
Yds/Target9.0#6
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-8.9

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average25% (3/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	80	112.3	-29%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	39	88.2	-56%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	69	75.8	-9%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	47	57.2	-18%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	76.4	+47%
Oct 04	Charlie Jones	0	33.0	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	73.0	-53%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	80	31.5	+154%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	112.4	+38%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	31.8	-37%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	51.2	-61%
Sep 13	Quentin Johnston	17	37.0	-54%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%5.3 yds	2%49.0 yds	14%6.6 yds
Short	36%5.2 yds	12%8.7 yds	32%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 52.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	24	Under	47.5	39 (65%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	19	Under	55.5	40 (65%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	35	Under	56.5	45 (68%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	10	Under	59.5	49 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	138	Over	54.5	38 (61%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	2	Under	59.5	38 (75%)
2025-12-28	17	vs TB	0	Under	35.5	14 (25%)
2025-12-21	16	vs CIN	72	Over	53.5	42 (71%)
2025-12-15	15	@ PIT	26	Under	25.5	42 (84%)
2025-12-07	14	@ NYJ	50	Under	66.5	51 (78%)
2025-11-30	13	vs NO	40	Under	70.5	55 (92%)
2025-11-16	11	vs WAS	52	Under	70.5	47 (84%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BUF	84	Over	66.5	44 (83%)
2025-10-30	9	vs BAL	82	Over	90.5	51 (80%)
2025-10-26	8	@ ATL	99	Over	61.5	54 (78%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CLE	15	Under	30.5	44 (76%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LAC	95	Over	95.5	46 (78%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CAR	110	Over	62.5	49 (89%)
2025-09-29	4	vs NYJ	48	Under	48.5	52 (90%)
2025-09-18	3	@ BUF	39	Under	20.5	53 (87%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 52.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 14m ago.