NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jaylen Waddle WR

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

52.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 20%2/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 38.0
Graph avg: 37.6
Graph median: 25.00–138
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Targets6.3▲+0.1

Rec3.7▼-0.3

Rec Yds38.0▼-18.9

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps41.5▼-3.6

Snap %67.8%▼-9.8

52.5

2025

50

Dec 07
26

Dec 15
72

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
2026

2

Sep 14
138

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
35

Oct 04
19

Oct 11
24

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 52.5

Home 47% 9/19 · avg 64.4
Away 22% 4/18 · avg 36.6
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 45.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 42.5 30% 3/10
O 47.5 30% 3/10
O 52.5 Today 20% 2/10
O 57.5 20% 2/10
O 62.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds133.9#22
Receptions9.4#30
Targets14.9#30
Yds/Target9.0#6
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-8.9

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average25% (3/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	80	112.3	-29%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	39	88.2	-56%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	69	75.8	-9%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	47	57.2	-18%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	76.4	+47%
Oct 04	Charlie Jones	0	33.0	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	73.0	-53%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	80	31.5	+154%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	112.4	+38%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	31.8	-37%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	51.2	-61%
Sep 13	Quentin Johnston	17	37.0	-54%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%5.3 yds	2%49.0 yds	14%6.6 yds
Short	36%5.2 yds	12%8.7 yds	32%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 52.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	24	Under	47.5	39 (65%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	19	Under	55.5	40 (65%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	35	Under	56.5	45 (68%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	10	Under	59.5	49 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	138	Over	54.5	38 (61%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	2	Under	59.5	38 (75%)
2025-12-28	17	vs TB	0	Under	35.5	14 (25%)
2025-12-21	16	vs CIN	72	Over	53.5	42 (71%)
2025-12-15	15	@ PIT	26	Under	25.5	42 (84%)
2025-12-07	14	@ NYJ	50	Under	66.5	51 (78%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 52.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 14m ago.