NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

J.K. Dobbins RB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

5.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 47%14/30 Odds imply —

Season avg: 4.5
Graph avg: 7.2
Graph median: 5.0-2–30
Over the close: 40%6/15

2026 per game

Carries13.5▼-1.8

Rush Yds45.0▼-32.2

Rush TD0.3▼-0.1

Targets1.5▲+0.1

Rec1.3▲+0.2

Rec Yds4.5▲+0.8

Snaps26.7▼-7.3

Snap %43.7%▼-7.4

5.5

2024

4

Sep 08
0

Sep 15
10

Sep 22
30

Sep 29
6

Oct 13
26

Oct 21
11

Oct 27
20

Nov 03
5

Nov 10
3

Nov 17
19

Nov 25
7

Dec 28
12

Jan 05
0

Jan 11
2025

5

Sep 07
9

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
4

Sep 29
5

Oct 05
0

Oct 12
-1

Oct 19
10

Oct 26
-2

Nov 02
7

Nov 06
2026

0

Sep 14
0

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
12

Oct 04
6

Oct 11
5

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 5.5

Home 36% 5/14 · avg 7.6
Away 56% 9/16 · avg 6.9
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 26.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 73% 22/30
O 5.5 Today 47% 14/30
O 10.5 23% 7/30
O 15.5 13% 4/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds116.5#1
Yds/Carry4.4#9
Rush TD0.7#10
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds38.2#6

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-13.5

Avg diff %-63%

Beat their average17% (1/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kyren Williams	17	40.0	-58%
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	56	46.8	+20%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	8	17.8	-55%
Sep 27	Kyle Juszczyk	0	27.5	-100%
Sep 20	George Holani	2	14.8	-86%
Sep 13	Alec Ingold	0	17.5	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	69%3.5 yds	19%3.0 yds	12%-1.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 5.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	5	Under	3.5	31 (52%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	6	Over	2.5	32 (52%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	12	Over	2.5	21 (32%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	4	Under	1.5	33 (49%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	0	Under	7.5	21 (34%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	0	Under	3.5	22 (43%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	7	Over	10.5	32 (52%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	-2	Under	3.5	29 (46%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	10	Over	2.5	33 (52%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	-1	Under	0.5	40 (49%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	0	Under	5.5	30 (50%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	5	Under	4.5	39 (53%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	4	Under	10.5	36 (44%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	0	Under	—	35 (67%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	9	Over	10.5	26 (45%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	5	Under	10.5	40 (53%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ HOU	0	Under	—	34 (61%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LV	12	Over	—	49 (65%)
2024-12-28	17	@ NE	7	Over	—	42 (53%)
2024-11-25	12	vs BAL	19	Over	—	21 (30%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CIN	3	Under	—	49 (73%)
2024-11-10	10	vs TEN	5	Under	—	39 (66%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CLE	20	Over	—	42 (74%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NO	11	Over	—	54 (82%)
2024-10-21	7	@ ARI	26	Over	—	45 (68%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DEN	6	Over	—	57 (73%)
2024-09-29	4	vs KC	30	Over	—	40 (71%)
2024-09-22	3	@ PIT	10	Over	—	30 (65%)
2024-09-15	2	@ CAR	0	Under	—	32 (46%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LV	4	Under	—	33 (58%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 14m ago.