NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Garrett Wilson WR

NYJ vs NE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

72.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 74.8
Graph avg: 60.5
Graph median: 56.50–114
Over the close: 75%9/12

2026 per game

Targets8.4-0.0

Rec6.2▲+1.1

Rec Yds74.8▲+18.4

Rec TD0.6+0.0

Snaps54.8▲+0.1

Snap %90.0%▲+3.0

72.5

2024

41

Nov 10
18

Nov 17
41

Dec 01
114

Dec 08
56

Dec 15
54

Dec 22
66

Dec 29
51

Jan 05
2025

95

Sep 07
50

Sep 14
84

Sep 21
82

Sep 29
71

Oct 05
13

Oct 12
0

Nov 09
2026

79

Sep 13
57

Sep 20
107

Sep 27
27

Oct 04
104

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 72.5

Home 27% 4/15 · avg 55.0
Away 50% 7/14 · avg 74.9
vs NE 50% 1/2 · avg 73.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 52.5 60% 12/20
O 62.5 45% 9/20
O 72.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 82.5 25% 5/20
O 92.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NE

What NE allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds118.9#28
Receptions11.3#14
Targets20.0#6
Yds/Target5.9#32
Rec TD0.8#19

WRs vs NE · 2026

Each main WR who faced NE this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.3

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Tre Tucker	41	58.2	-30%
Oct 11	Cody White	44	16.0	+175%
Oct 04	DJ Moore	11	55.7	-80%
Oct 04	Khalil Shakir	82	43.5	+89%
Sep 27	Parker Washington	40	78.0	-49%
Sep 27	Jakobi Meyers	64	34.5	+86%
Sep 20	DK Metcalf	27	49.5	-45%
Sep 20	Roman Wilson	28	40.0	-30%
Sep 09	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	122	119.0	+3%
Sep 09	Rashid Shaheed	4	31.6	-87%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.0 yds	2%21.2 yds	6%12.7 yds
Short	37%5.3 yds	10%4.5 yds	40%5.0 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds#29	4%10.5 yds#31	4%10.0 yds#22
Short	32%5.2 yds#27	17%7.7 yds#12	36%4.4 yds#31

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.2 yds	7%8.0 yds	11%15.1 yds
Short	30%3.4 yds	16%6.2 yds	30%8.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	5	8.4	42	30.1%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	2	7.5	15	23.2%
3	Kenyon Sadiq TE	5	4.2	21	16.1%
4	Mason Taylor TE	2	3.0	6	11.7%
5	Isaiah Williams WR	5	2.8	14	10.7%
6	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
7	Tim Patrick WR	1	3.0	3	10.3%
8	Braelon Allen RB	5	2.2	11	8.5%
9	Jeremy Ruckert TE	3	2.7	8	7.9%
10	Sterling Shepard WR	2	1.0	2	4.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 72.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CLE	104	Over	69.5	65 (93%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CHI	27	Under	75.5	32 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DET	107	Over	77.5	62 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	57	Under	68.5	65 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	@ TEN	79	Over	60.5	50 (75%)
2025-11-09	10	vs CLE	0	Under	20.5	19 (39%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DEN	13	Under	10.5	48 (84%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DAL	71	Under	62.5	77 (94%)
2025-09-29	4	@ MIA	82	Over	50.5	62 (98%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TB	84	Over	65.5	69 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs BUF	50	Under	30.5	44 (94%)
2025-09-07	1	vs PIT	95	Over	53.5	64 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIA	51	Under	—	63 (98%)
2024-12-29	17	@ BUF	66	Under	—	52 (83%)
2024-12-22	16	vs LA	54	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ JAX	56	Under	—	57 (98%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIA	114	Over	—	67 (99%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SEA	41	Under	—	66 (97%)
2024-11-17	11	vs IND	18	Under	—	51 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ ARI	41	Under	—	56 (97%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 72.5Underdog 79.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 4m ago.