NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

A.J. Brown WR

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

68.5 Rec Yds O -128U -102

Hit rate · All 46%16/35 Odds imply 52.6% Over

Season avg: 26.5
Graph avg: 66.4
Graph median: 66.07–132
Over the close: 29%5/17

2026 per game

Targets7.0▼-1.0

Rec3.0▼-2.1

Rec Yds26.5▼-37.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps41.5▼-15.8

Snap %60.0%▼-31.2

68.5

2024

119

Sep 06
116

Oct 13
89

Oct 20
84

Oct 27
36

Nov 03
109

Nov 10
65

Nov 14
109

Nov 24
66

Dec 01
43

Dec 08
110

Dec 15
97

Dec 22
36

Dec 29
10

Jan 12
14

Jan 19
96

Jan 26
43

Feb 09
2025

8

Sep 04
27

Sep 14
109

Sep 21
7

Sep 28
43

Oct 05
80

Oct 09
121

Oct 19
13

Nov 10
49

Nov 16
110

Nov 23
132

Nov 28
100

Dec 08
41

Dec 14
95

Dec 20
68

Dec 28
25

Jan 11
2026

26

Sep 09
27

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 68.5

Home 32% 6/19 · avg 59.1
Away 62% 10/16 · avg 75.1
vs CHI 100% 1/1 · avg 132.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 48.5 57% 20/35
O 58.5 54% 19/35
O 68.5 Today 46% 16/35
O 78.5 46% 16/35
O 88.5 40% 14/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds183.7#2
Receptions12.0#10
Targets19.1#12
Yds/Target9.6#1
Rec TD1.1#5

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+9.9

Avg diff %+48%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake London	62	97.6	-36%
Oct 18	Jahan Dotson	87	29.8	+192%
Oct 11	Christian Watson	143	79.0	+81%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	123	75.6	+63%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	27	78.2	-65%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	73	15.6	+368%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	65	81.7	-20%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	32	50.4	-37%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	55	67.7	-19%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	21	47.3	-56%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	75	99.0	-24%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	138	60.3	+129%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%8.6 yds	8%11.1 yds	10%7.4 yds
Short	31%7.4 yds	11%9.4 yds	30%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 68.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	27	Under	52.5	52 (76%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	26	Under	64.5	31 (44%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	25	Under	32.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	68	Under	68.5	48 (89%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	95	Over	95.5	61 (87%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	41	Under	14.5	50 (72%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	100	Over	70.5	69 (97%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	132	Over	60.5	52 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	110	Over	110.5	59 (94%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	49	Under	49.5	67 (93%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	13	Under	—	49 (78%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	121	Over	61.5	46 (92%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	80	Over	90.5	55 (96%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	43	Under	59.5	57 (93%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	7	Under	10.5	55 (96%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	109	Over	64.5	62 (93%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	27	Under	30.5	58 (97%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	8	Under	70.5	55 (87%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	43	Under	—	65 (88%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs WAS	96	Over	—	63 (89%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs LA	14	Under	—	61 (97%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs GB	10	Under	—	56 (93%)
2024-12-29	17	vs DAL	36	Under	—	59 (91%)
2024-12-22	16	@ WAS	97	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs PIT	110	Over	—	73 (91%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CAR	43	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BAL	66	Under	—	54 (96%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LA	109	Over	—	65 (89%)
2024-11-14	11	vs WAS	65	Under	—	69 (97%)
2024-11-10	10	@ DAL	109	Over	—	50 (74%)
2024-11-03	9	vs JAX	36	Under	—	37 (47%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CIN	84	Over	—	50 (82%)
2024-10-20	7	@ NYG	89	Over	—	51 (77%)
2024-10-13	6	vs CLE	116	Over	—	57 (92%)
2024-09-06	1	vs GB	119	Over	—	72 (95%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 68.5Underdog 69.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 11m ago.