NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

TreVeyon Henderson RB

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

14.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 35%9/26 Odds imply —

Season avg: 6.2
Graph avg: 11.0
Graph median: 9.0-2–32
Over the close: 27%7/26

2026 per game

Carries9.8▼-0.2

Rush Yds38.8▼-8.2

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets1.0▼-1.3

Rec0.6▼-1.3

Rec Yds6.2▼-5.9

Snaps22.4▼-5.4

Snap %34.8%▼-8.2

14.5

2025

24

Sep 07
30

Sep 14
19

Sep 21
14

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
9

Oct 12
0

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
32

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
31

Nov 13
15

Nov 23
19

Dec 01
13

Dec 14
9

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
0

Jan 04
9

Jan 11
-2

Jan 18
0

Jan 25
26

Feb 08
2026

0

Sep 20
6

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
16

Oct 11
9

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 47% 7/15 · avg 14.0
Away 18% 2/11 · avg 6.8
vs CHI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 62% 16/26
O 9.5 42% 11/26
O 14.5 Today 35% 9/26
O 19.5 19% 5/26
O 24.5 15% 4/26

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds93.5#18
Yds/Carry4.5#6
Rush TD0.6#16
Targets4.8#26
Rec Yds29.1#20

RBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main RB who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.6

Avg diff %+14%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Bijan Robinson	-8	30.4	-126%
Oct 11	MarShawn Lloyd	6	9.8	-39%
Oct 04	Braelon Allen	8	7.4	+8%
Sep 28	Will Shipley	11	5.0	+120%
Sep 20	Aaron Jones	0	18.0	-100%
Sep 13	Chuba Hubbard	38	11.8	+223%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	5%0.0 yds
Short	37%1.6 yds	21%7.5 yds	37%7.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 26 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	9	Under	6.5	16 (24%)
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	16	Over	7.5	12 (16%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	0	Under	7.5	28 (37%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	6	Under	9.5	23 (37%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	0	Under	10.5	33 (60%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	26	Over	5.5	28 (39%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	3.5	4 (6%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	-2	Under	5.5	25 (38%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	9	Under	9.5	26 (41%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	0	Under	6.5	24 (41%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	0	Under	0.5	34 (52%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	9	Under	15.5	14 (19%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	13	Under	16.5	25 (48%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	19	Over	19.5	32 (49%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	15	Over	15.5	46 (65%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	31	Over	30.5	59 (88%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	3	Under	3.5	51 (84%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	32	Over	35.5	51 (75%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	0	Under	9.5	14 (21%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	0	Under	13.5	9 (14%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	9	Under	17.5	19 (30%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BUF	3	Under	15.5	30 (50%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CAR	14	Under	15.5	15 (31%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	19	Over	15.5	34 (46%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	30	Over	19.5	19 (32%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	24	Over	20.5	25 (35%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 5.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 6m ago.