NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cade Otton TE

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 57%20/35 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 36.4
Graph avg: 39.6
Graph median: 33.00–100
Over the close: 50%10/20

2026 per game

Targets5.4+0.0

Rec3.6▼-0.3

Rec Yds36.4▼-1.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps61.0▼-0.8

Snap %93.6%+0.0

29.5

2024

5

Sep 08
0

Sep 15
47

Sep 22
52

Sep 29
44

Oct 03
15

Oct 13
100

Oct 21
81

Oct 27
77

Nov 04
35

Nov 10
30

Nov 24
20

Dec 01
70

Dec 08
24

Dec 15
32

Jan 12
2025

0

Sep 07
25

Sep 15
9

Sep 28
81

Oct 05
51

Oct 12
65

Oct 20
40

Oct 26
82

Nov 09
28

Nov 16
21

Nov 23
9

Nov 30
19

Dec 07
15

Dec 21
33

Dec 28
94

Jan 03
2026

26

Sep 13
38

Sep 20
56

Sep 27
37

Oct 04
25

Oct 08
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 76% 13/17 · avg 48.1
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 31.6
vs PIT No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 77% 27/35
O 24.5 69% 24/35
O 29.5 Today 57% 20/35
O 34.5 49% 17/35
O 39.5 40% 14/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds57.6#11
Receptions5.5#14
Targets7.1#21
Yds/Target8.1#6
Rec TD0.5#9

TEs vs PIT · 2026

Each main TE who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.0

Avg diff %+9%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Tyler Warren	83	32.5	+155%
Oct 01	Harold Fannin Jr.	27	32.5	-17%
Sep 27	Mike Gesicki	37	40.7	-9%
Sep 20	Hunter Henry	40	34.2	+17%
Sep 13	Kyle Pitts	0	27.2	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	4%9.0 yds	4%0.0 yds
Short	17%8.6 yds	29%5.1 yds	42%9.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	25	Under	30.5	66 (92%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	37	Over	24.5	60 (95%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	56	Over	27.5	65 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	38	Over	27.5	58 (89%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	26	Under	31.5	56 (98%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	94	Over	44.5	64 (96%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	33	Over	23.5	65 (97%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	15	Under	6.5	60 (94%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	19	Under	16.5	60 (81%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	9	Under	9.5	59 (97%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LA	21	Under	36.5	60 (86%)
2025-11-16	11	@ BUF	28	Under	38.5	68 (97%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NE	82	Over	66.5	67 (97%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NO	40	Over	40.5	56 (97%)
2025-10-20	7	@ DET	65	Over	65.5	67 (97%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SF	51	Over	55.5	53 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ SEA	81	Over	22.5	56 (92%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	9	Under	10.5	69 (96%)
2025-09-15	2	@ HOU	25	Under	12.5	73 (91%)
2025-09-07	1	@ ATL	0	Under	32.5	50 (86%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs WAS	32	Over	—	46 (96%)
2024-12-15	15	@ LAC	24	Under	—	66 (92%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LV	70	Over	—	60 (97%)
2024-12-01	13	@ CAR	20	Under	—	75 (94%)
2024-11-24	12	@ NYG	30	Over	—	53 (82%)
2024-11-10	10	vs SF	35	Over	—	57 (93%)
2024-11-04	9	@ KC	77	Over	—	54 (98%)
2024-10-27	8	vs ATL	81	Over	—	68 (93%)
2024-10-21	7	vs BAL	100	Over	—	80 (98%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NO	15	Under	—	62 (81%)
2024-10-03	5	@ ATL	44	Over	—	53 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs PHI	52	Over	—	73 (95%)
2024-09-22	3	vs DEN	47	Over	—	52 (91%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DET	0	Under	—	48 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs WAS	5	Under	—	55 (86%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.