NFL Prop Research

KM

Keaton Mitchell RB

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

15.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

BookCaesars · 15.5Fanatics · 15.5FanDuel · 15.5Bally Bet · 15.5BetMGM · 13.5

Hit rate · All 17%4/23 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg

10.4

Graph avg

6.2

Graph median

0.0-5–28

Over the close

43%6/14

2026 per game

Carries6.6▲+2.1

Rush Yds27.0▲+0.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.1

Targets2.8▲+1.9

Rec2.4▲+1.7

Rec Yds10.4▲+5.6

Snaps21.8▲+11.6

Snap %33.0%▲+15.5

Splits all logged games · over 15.5

• Home 8% 1/12 · avg 4.9
• Away 27% 3/11 · avg 7.6
• vs KC No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

• O 5.5 39% 9/23
• O 10.5 26% 6/23
• O 15.5 Today 17% 4/23
• O 20.5 13% 3/23
• O 25.5 4% 1/23

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs KC

What KC allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rush Yds88.5#19
• Yds/Carry3.6#26
• Rush TD0.6#16
• Targets4.8#23
• Rec Yds29.9#20

RBs vs KC · 2026

Each main RB who faced KC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.6

Avg diff %+23%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	LV Ashton Jeanty	68	36.8	+85%
Sep 27	MIA De'Von Achane	0	24.5	-100%
Sep 20	IND Jonathan Taylor	40	16.5	+142%
Sep 14	DEN RJ Harvey	23	35.0	-34%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	36%6.6 yds	16%0.5 yds	48%4.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · LAC 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 23 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 15.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DEN	18	Over	11.5	23 (34%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	24	Over	10.5	26 (37%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	-5	Under	3.5	26 (38%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	15	Under	8.5	17 (25%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	0	Under	7.5	17 (31%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	0	Under	0.5	7 (14%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	7	Under	0.5	14 (18%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	0	Under	0.5	19 (35%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	0	Under	0.5	16 (39%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	0	Under	3.5	12 (15%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	12	Under	12.5	8 (13%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	9	Under	0.5	12 (19%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	23	Over	4.5	16 (26%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	0	Under	10.5	5 (7%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	7	Under	—	10 (18%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	0	Under	—	7 (11%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	5	Under	—	4 (9%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	0	Under	—	—
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	0	Under	—	15 (21%)
2024-12-25	17	@ HOU	28	Over	—	17 (27%)
2024-11-17	11	@ PIT	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2024-11-07	10	vs CIN	0	Under	—	2 (3%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 15.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 8m ago.