NFL Prop Research

TJ

Theo Johnson TE

NYG vs NO · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

7.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

BookESPN BET · 7.5Caesars · 7.5FanDuel · 7.5

Hit rate · Last 20 85%17/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg

13.8

Graph avg

31.9

Graph median

28.00–77

Over the close

44%8/18

2026 per game

Targets2.2▼-2.7

Rec1.0▼-2.0

Rec Yds13.8▼-21.5

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps28.2▼-29.9

Snap %38.8%▼-48.0

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

• Home 80% 12/15 · avg 23.5
• Away 87% 13/15 · avg 37.4
• vs NO 100% 1/1 · avg 33.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 2.5 90% 18/20
• O 7.5 Today 85% 17/20
• O 12.5 70% 14/20
• O 17.5 65% 13/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NO

What NO allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds56.4#12
• Receptions6.1#7
• Targets8.5#5
• Yds/Target6.6#21
• Rec TD0.3#19

TEs vs NO · 2026

Each main TE who faced NO this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.5

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	MIN T.J. Hockenson	7	48.8	-86%
Oct 05	ATL Austin Hooper	9	15.5	-42%
Sep 27	LV Brock Bowers	116	98.0	+18%
Sep 20	BAL Mark Andrews	49	32.0	+53%
Sep 13	DET Sam LaPorta	48	67.0	-28%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYG offense

NYG offense: Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.2 yds	4%10.9 yds	8%6.3 yds
Short	33%5.8 yds	22%6.1 yds	26%5.5 yds

Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#21	2%15.0 yds#16	8%11.9 yds#13
Short	32%6.6 yds#8	12%5.9 yds#25	38%4.6 yds#28

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%11.4 yds	2%42.0 yds	8%23.3 yds
Short	20%5.1 yds	25%6.6 yds	32%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · NYG 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYG targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Isaiah Likely TE	5	9.6	48	29.8%
2	Malik Nabers WR	5	9.2	46	26.9%
3	Malachi Fields WR	5	3.4	17	11.3%
4	Darnell Mooney WR	5	3.4	17	10.2%
5	Devin Singletary RB	2	2.5	5	8.5%
6	Cam Skattebo RB	5	2.4	12	8.2%
7	Theo Johnson TE	4	2.2	9	6.3%
8	Patrick Ricard RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
9	Odell Beckham Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	4.8%
10	Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB	5	0.6	3	1.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ WAS	35	Over	2.5	43 (48%)
2026-10-04	4	vs ARI	11	Over	8.5	22 (33%)
2026-09-21	2	@ LA	0	Under	9.5	16 (28%)
2026-09-13	1	vs DAL	9	Over	14.5	32 (46%)
2025-12-21	16	vs MIN	0	Under	0.5	54 (96%)
2025-12-14	15	vs WAS	72	Over	37.5	59 (87%)
2025-12-01	13	@ NE	29	Over	23.5	49 (89%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DET	77	Over	24.5	64 (78%)
2025-11-16	11	vs GB	36	Over	—	66 (92%)
2025-11-09	10	@ CHI	75	Over	75.5	71 (97%)
2025-11-02	9	vs SF	27	Over	37.5	49 (86%)
2025-10-26	8	@ PHI	20	Over	31.5	51 (98%)
2025-10-19	7	@ DEN	66	Over	25.5	68 (88%)
2025-10-09	6	vs PHI	27	Over	30.5	62 (90%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NO	33	Over	17.5	60 (82%)
2025-09-28	4	vs LAC	17	Over	18.5	53 (70%)
2025-09-21	3	vs KC	10	Over	10.5	57 (86%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DAL	34	Over	20.5	56 (84%)
2025-09-07	1	@ WAS	5	Under	10.5	53 (78%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DAL	54	Over	—	56 (89%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 7.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.