NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Theo Johnson TE

NYG vs NO · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

7.5 Rec Yds O -117U -113

Hit rate · All 83%25/30 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 13.8
Graph avg: 30.5
Graph median: 29.50–77
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Targets2.2▼-2.7

Rec1.0▼-2.0

Rec Yds13.8▼-21.5

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps28.2▼-29.9

Snap %38.8%▼-48.0

7.5

2024

18

Sep 08
13

Sep 22
6

Sep 26
48

Oct 06
30

Oct 13
0

Oct 20
35

Oct 28
51

Nov 03
37

Nov 10
39

Nov 24
54

Nov 28
2025

5

Sep 07
34

Sep 14
10

Sep 21
17

Sep 28
33

Oct 05
27

Oct 09
66

Oct 19
20

Oct 26
27

Nov 02
75

Nov 09
36

Nov 16
77

Nov 23
29

Dec 01
72

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
2026

9

Sep 13
0

Sep 21
11

Oct 04
35

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

Home 80% 12/15 · avg 23.5
Away 87% 13/15 · avg 37.4
vs NO 100% 1/1 · avg 33.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 90% 27/30
O 7.5 Today 83% 25/30
O 12.5 73% 22/30
O 17.5 67% 20/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NO

What NO allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds56.4#12
Receptions6.1#7
Targets8.5#5
Yds/Target6.6#21
Rec TD0.3#19

TEs vs NO · 2026

Each main TE who faced NO this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.5

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	T.J. Hockenson	7	48.8	-86%
Oct 05	Austin Hooper	9	15.5	-42%
Sep 27	Brock Bowers	116	98.0	+18%
Sep 20	Mark Andrews	49	32.0	+53%
Sep 13	Sam LaPorta	48	67.0	-28%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYG offense

NYG offense: Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.2 yds	4%10.9 yds	8%6.3 yds
Short	33%5.8 yds	22%6.1 yds	26%5.5 yds

Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#21	2%15.0 yds#16	8%11.9 yds#13
Short	32%6.6 yds#8	12%5.9 yds#25	38%4.6 yds#28

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%11.4 yds	2%42.0 yds	8%23.3 yds
Short	20%5.1 yds	25%6.6 yds	32%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYG targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Isaiah Likely TE	5	9.6	48	29.8%
2	Malik Nabers WR	5	9.2	46	26.9%
3	Malachi Fields WR	5	3.4	17	11.3%
4	Darnell Mooney WR	5	3.4	17	10.2%
5	Devin Singletary RB	2	2.5	5	8.5%
6	Cam Skattebo RB	5	2.4	12	8.2%
7	Theo Johnson TE	4	2.2	9	6.3%
8	Patrick Ricard RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
9	Odell Beckham Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	4.8%
10	Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB	5	0.6	3	1.2%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ WAS	35	Over	2.5	43 (48%)
2026-10-04	4	vs ARI	11	Over	8.5	22 (33%)
2026-09-21	2	@ LA	0	Under	9.5	16 (28%)
2026-09-13	1	vs DAL	9	Over	14.5	32 (46%)
2025-12-21	16	vs MIN	0	Under	0.5	54 (96%)
2025-12-14	15	vs WAS	72	Over	37.5	59 (87%)
2025-12-01	13	@ NE	29	Over	23.5	49 (89%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DET	77	Over	24.5	64 (78%)
2025-11-16	11	vs GB	36	Over	—	66 (92%)
2025-11-09	10	@ CHI	75	Over	75.5	71 (97%)
2025-11-02	9	vs SF	27	Over	37.5	49 (86%)
2025-10-26	8	@ PHI	20	Over	31.5	51 (98%)
2025-10-19	7	@ DEN	66	Over	25.5	68 (88%)
2025-10-09	6	vs PHI	27	Over	30.5	62 (90%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NO	33	Over	17.5	60 (82%)
2025-09-28	4	vs LAC	17	Over	18.5	53 (70%)
2025-09-21	3	vs KC	10	Over	10.5	57 (86%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DAL	34	Over	20.5	56 (84%)
2025-09-07	1	@ WAS	5	Under	10.5	53 (78%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DAL	54	Over	—	56 (89%)
2024-11-24	12	vs TB	39	Over	—	43 (73%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CAR	37	Over	—	69 (92%)
2024-11-03	9	vs WAS	51	Over	—	55 (85%)
2024-10-28	8	@ PIT	35	Over	—	70 (97%)
2024-10-20	7	vs PHI	0	Under	—	52 (90%)
2024-10-13	6	vs CIN	30	Over	—	70 (89%)
2024-10-06	5	@ SEA	48	Over	—	56 (78%)
2024-09-26	4	vs DAL	6	Under	—	49 (71%)
2024-09-22	3	@ CLE	13	Over	—	58 (81%)
2024-09-08	1	vs MIN	18	Over	—	61 (86%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 7.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 12m ago.