NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

89.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · This season 83%5/6 Odds imply —

Season avg: 119.5
Graph avg: 119.5
Graph median: 125.076–155
Over the close: 83%5/6

2026 per game

Targets11.0▲+1.6

Rec8.2▲+1.4

Rec Yds119.5▲+19.9

Rec TD1.2▲+0.6

Snaps55.7▲+7.1

Snap %84.7%▲+7.7

89.5

2026

122

Sep 09
155

Sep 20
128

Sep 27
76

Oct 04
102

Oct 11
134

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 89.5

Home 54% 12/22 · avg 87.2
Away 52% 11/21 · avg 91.5
vs KC No games

Alt lines this season · how often Over cleared

O 69.5 100% 6/6
O 79.5 83% 5/6
O 89.5 Today 83% 5/6
O 99.5 83% 5/6
O 109.5 67% 4/6

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs KC

What KC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds112.7#31
Receptions9.5#29
Targets17.4#21
Yds/Target6.5#30
Rec TD0.2#32

WRs vs KC · 2026

Each main WR who faced KC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-7.1

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average50% (5/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Ladd McConkey	17	45.8	-63%
Oct 18	Quentin Johnston	57	27.0	+111%
Oct 04	Tre Tucker	44	65.4	-33%
Oct 04	Cody White	36	14.4	+150%
Sep 27	Malik Washington	56	51.5	+9%
Sep 27	Ryan Miller	15	38.5	-61%
Sep 20	Keenan Allen	5	55.5	-91%
Sep 20	Josh Downs	72	43.4	+66%
Sep 14	Jaylen Waddle	2	45.2	-96%
Sep 14	Pat Bryant	42	30.3	+38%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%6.3 yds	7%16.4 yds	7%29.6 yds
Short	34%8.3 yds	17%9.2 yds	29%7.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 6 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 89.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	134	Over	93.5	78 (92%)
2026-10-11	5	vs SF	102	Over	94.5	53 (84%)
2026-10-04	4	vs LAC	76	Under	93.5	53 (88%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	128	Over	90.5	58 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ARI	155	Over	81.5	47 (67%)
2026-09-09	1	vs NE	122	Over	81.5	45 (90%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 88.5Underdog 89.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 11m ago.