NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

89.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 70%14/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 119.5
Graph avg: 100.7
Graph median: 103.519–167
Over the close: 56%10/18

2026 per game

Targets11.0▲+1.6

Rec8.2▲+1.4

Rec Yds119.5▲+19.9

Rec TD1.2▲+0.6

Snaps55.7▲+7.1

Snap %84.7%▲+7.7

89.5

2025

123

Oct 20
129

Nov 02
93

Nov 09
105

Nov 16
167

Nov 23
23

Nov 30
92

Dec 07
113

Dec 14
96

Dec 18
72

Dec 28
84

Jan 03
19

Jan 17
153

Jan 25
27

Feb 08
2026

122

Sep 09
155

Sep 20
128

Sep 27
76

Oct 04
102

Oct 11
134

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 89.5

Home 54% 12/22 · avg 87.2
Away 52% 11/21 · avg 91.5
vs KC No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 69.5 85% 17/20
O 79.5 75% 15/20
O 89.5 Today 70% 14/20
O 99.5 55% 11/20
O 109.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs KC

What KC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds112.7#31
Receptions9.5#29
Targets17.4#21
Yds/Target6.5#30
Rec TD0.2#32

WRs vs KC · 2026

Each main WR who faced KC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-7.1

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average50% (5/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Ladd McConkey	17	45.8	-63%
Oct 18	Quentin Johnston	57	27.0	+111%
Oct 04	Tre Tucker	44	65.4	-33%
Oct 04	Cody White	36	14.4	+150%
Sep 27	Malik Washington	56	51.5	+9%
Sep 27	Ryan Miller	15	38.5	-61%
Sep 20	Keenan Allen	5	55.5	-91%
Sep 20	Josh Downs	72	43.4	+66%
Sep 14	Jaylen Waddle	2	45.2	-96%
Sep 14	Pat Bryant	42	30.3	+38%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%6.3 yds	7%16.4 yds	7%29.6 yds
Short	34%8.3 yds	17%9.2 yds	29%7.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 89.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	134	Over	93.5	78 (92%)
2026-10-11	5	vs SF	102	Over	94.5	53 (84%)
2026-10-04	4	vs LAC	76	Under	93.5	53 (88%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	128	Over	90.5	58 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ARI	155	Over	81.5	47 (67%)
2026-09-09	1	vs NE	122	Over	81.5	45 (90%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	27	Under	91.5	50 (69%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	153	Over	92.5	55 (82%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	19	Under	90.5	38 (72%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	84	Under	84.5	57 (83%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	72	Under	72.5	59 (89%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	96	Over	89.5	65 (96%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	113	Over	96.5	55 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	92	Over	95.5	44 (72%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	23	Under	25.5	55 (82%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	167	Over	95.5	38 (79%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	105	Over	80.5	70 (83%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	93	Over	102.5	26 (42%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	129	Over	—	34 (67%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	123	Over	—	63 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 88.5Underdog 89.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 10m ago.