NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tony Pollard RB

TEN vs IND · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

9.5 Rec Yds O -117U -107

Hit rate · All 58%22/38 Odds imply 51.1% Over

Season avg: 4.8
Graph avg: 12.3
Graph median: 11.5-5–43
Over the close: 36%8/22

2026 per game

Carries13.6▼-0.6

Rush Yds54.6▼-9.0

Rush TD0.2▼-0.1

Targets2.4-0.0

Rec1.6▼-0.3

Rec Yds4.8▼-7.3

Snaps30.2▼-8.4

Snap %52.2%▼-10.3

9.5

2024

12

Sep 08
40

Sep 15
15

Sep 22
20

Sep 30
-5

Oct 13
4

Oct 20
23

Oct 27
26

Nov 03
19

Nov 10
14

Nov 17
10

Nov 24
33

Dec 01
22

Dec 08
0

Dec 15
5

Dec 22
0

Jan 05
2025

29

Sep 07
0

Sep 14
14

Sep 21
12

Sep 28
11

Oct 05
13

Oct 12
43

Oct 19
9

Oct 26
12

Nov 02
4

Nov 16
21

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
8

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
10

Dec 28
17

Jan 04
2026

-1

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
22

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 10.9
Away 67% 12/18 · avg 13.8
vs IND 25% 1/4 · avg 5.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 66% 25/38
O 9.5 Today 58% 22/38
O 14.5 34% 13/38
O 19.5 26% 10/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs IND

What IND allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds97.9#13
Yds/Carry4.5#11
Rush TD0.7#13
Targets5.3#18
Rec Yds33.3#15

RBs vs IND · 2026

Each main RB who faced IND this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+19.4

Avg diff %+589%

Beat their average100% (5/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jaylen Warren	87	35.8	+143%
Oct 04	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	35	1.2	+2700%
Sep 27	David Montgomery	15	13.0	+15%
Sep 20	Emmett Johnson	20	18.0	+11%
Sep 13	Derrick Henry	19	10.8	+77%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.7 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.4 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	10%4.1 yds	40%4.4 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.6 yds#8	3%12.3 yds#24	10%12.0 yds#12
Short	28%6.1 yds#11	21%8.8 yds#4	32%5.9 yds#11

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	35%2.8 yds	19%2.8 yds	42%4.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	5	7.4	37	26.7%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	5	6.0	30	19.3%
3	Tyjae Spears RB	5	3.2	16	11.1%
4	Gunnar Helm TE	5	2.6	13	9.5%
5	Elic Ayomanor WR	5	2.4	12	9.2%
6	Tony Pollard RB	5	2.4	12	8.3%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	4	2.0	8	7.6%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	5	1.4	7	4.9%
9	Chimere Dike WR	5	1.4	7	4.3%
10	Kylen Granson TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 9.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs HOU	0	Under	9.5	30 (48%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	2	Under	8.5	34 (53%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	22	Over	6.5	32 (53%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	1	Under	7.5	29 (55%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	-1	Under	9.5	26 (52%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	17	Over	18.5	34 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	10	Over	0.5	37 (50%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	0	Under	7.5	40 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	8	Under	8.5	28 (53%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	39 (59%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	3	Under	10.5	27 (46%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	21	Over	10.5	39 (51%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	4	Under	9.5	29 (49%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	12	Over	12.5	29 (62%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	9	Under	15.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	43	Over	7.5	30 (57%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	13	Over	10.5	26 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	11	Over	9.5	49 (73%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	12	Over	10.5	43 (86%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	14	Over	12.5	64 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	0	Under	16.5	59 (89%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	29	Over	29.5	51 (89%)
2025-01-05	18	vs HOU	0	Under	—	45 (73%)
2024-12-22	16	@ IND	5	Under	—	24 (39%)
2024-12-15	15	vs CIN	0	Under	—	31 (44%)
2024-12-08	14	vs JAX	22	Over	—	40 (63%)
2024-12-01	13	@ WAS	33	Over	—	40 (73%)
2024-11-24	12	@ HOU	10	Over	—	63 (94%)
2024-11-17	11	vs MIN	14	Over	—	37 (63%)
2024-11-10	10	@ LAC	19	Over	—	29 (54%)
2024-11-03	9	vs NE	26	Over	—	66 (86%)
2024-10-27	8	@ DET	23	Over	—	62 (82%)
2024-10-20	7	@ BUF	4	Under	—	65 (89%)
2024-10-13	6	vs IND	-5	Under	—	43 (74%)
2024-09-30	4	@ MIA	20	Over	—	39 (60%)
2024-09-22	3	vs GB	15	Over	—	34 (63%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NYJ	40	Over	—	44 (67%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CHI	12	Over	—	39 (61%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.