NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kimani Vidal RB

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

8.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 48%13/27 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 6.0
Graph avg: 9.0
Graph median: 1.0-2–60
Over the close: 17%2/12

2026 per game

Carries3.5▼-8.4

Rush Yds22.0▼-26.1

Rush TD0.2+0.0

Targets2.0▲+0.2

Rec1.0▼-0.3

Rec Yds6.0▼-5.1

Snaps19.2▼-19.1

Snap %28.0%▼-29.2

8.5

2024

40

Oct 13
9

Oct 21
0

Oct 27
0

Nov 03
0

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
13

Dec 15
0

Dec 19
0

Dec 28
2025

0

Sep 28
1

Oct 05
14

Oct 12
15

Oct 19
10

Oct 23
0

Nov 02
13

Nov 09
-1

Nov 16
11

Nov 30
60

Dec 08
15

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
-2

Jan 04
20

Jan 11
2026

0

Sep 20
14

Sep 27
11

Oct 04
-1

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 8.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 11.1
Away 44% 7/16 · avg 7.5
vs KC 50% 1/2 · avg 7.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 48% 13/27
O 8.5 Today 48% 13/27
O 13.5 26% 7/27
O 18.5 11% 3/27

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs KC

What KC allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.5#19
Yds/Carry3.6#26
Rush TD0.6#16
Targets4.8#23
Rec Yds29.9#20

RBs vs KC · 2026

Each main RB who faced KC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.6

Avg diff %+23%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Ashton Jeanty	68	36.8	+85%
Sep 27	De'Von Achane	0	24.5	-100%
Sep 20	Jonathan Taylor	40	16.5	+142%
Sep 14	RJ Harvey	23	35.0	-34%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	0%	10%0.0 yds
Short	40%11.6 yds	15%6.7 yds	30%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 27 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 8.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DEN	-1	Under	24.5	28 (42%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	11	Over	—	25 (35%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	14	Over	—	17 (25%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	0	Under	—	7 (10%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	20	Over	9.5	56 (93%)
2026-01-04	18	@ DEN	-2	Under	—	14 (20%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	0	Under	0.5	21 (33%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	15	Over	15.5	42 (64%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	60	Over	60.5	51 (69%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	11	Over	15.5	51 (76%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	-1	Under	10.5	25 (52%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	13	Over	9.5	68 (93%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	0	Under	10.5	47 (72%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	10	Over	10.5	54 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	15	Over	15.5	49 (64%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	14	Over	14.5	43 (67%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	1	Under	—	14 (21%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2024-12-28	17	@ NE	0	Under	—	9 (11%)
2024-12-19	16	vs DEN	0	Under	—	21 (32%)
2024-12-15	15	vs TB	13	Over	—	35 (67%)
2024-12-08	14	@ KC	0	Under	—	32 (53%)
2024-12-01	13	@ ATL	0	Under	—	12 (26%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CLE	0	Under	—	11 (19%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NO	0	Under	—	11 (17%)
2024-10-21	7	@ ARI	9	Over	—	18 (27%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DEN	40	Over	—	19 (24%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 8.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.