NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kyren Williams RB

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

19.5 Rec Yds O -116U -108

Hit rate · All 33%14/43 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 40.0
Graph avg: 17.4
Graph median: 14.0-1–70
Over the close: 60%15/25

2026 per game

Carries14.0▼-1.2

Rush Yds68.6▼-3.2

Rush TD0.8▲+0.2

Targets6.6▲+3.6

Rec5.4▲+3.2

Rec Yds40.0▲+22.4

Snaps52.8▲+7.8

Snap %69.2%▲+2.3

19.5

2024

10

Sep 29
3

Oct 06
0

Oct 20
19

Oct 24
26

Nov 03
20

Nov 11
0

Nov 17
0

Nov 24
9

Dec 01
10

Dec 08
4

Dec 12
7

Dec 22
16

Dec 28
16

Jan 13
-1

Jan 19
2025

3

Sep 07
14

Sep 14
18

Sep 21
17

Sep 28
66

Oct 02
37

Oct 12
11

Oct 19
0

Nov 02
11

Nov 09
5

Nov 16
2

Nov 23
0

Nov 30
13

Dec 07
10

Dec 14
15

Dec 18
38

Dec 29
21

Jan 04
18

Jan 10
30

Jan 18
22

Jan 25
2026

24

Sep 10
12

Sep 21
70

Sep 27
67

Oct 04
27

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 43 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 30% 6/20 · avg 14.9
Away 35% 8/23 · avg 19.6
vs ARI 50% 2/4 · avg 19.2

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 9.5 67% 29/43
O 14.5 49% 21/43
O 19.5 Today 33% 14/43
O 24.5 23% 10/43
O 29.5 14% 6/43

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds132.6#1
Yds/Carry4.8#3
Rush TD1.0#7
Targets5.4#16
Rec Yds36.3#8

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-11.7

Avg diff %-64%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	56	46.8	+20%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	8	17.8	-55%
Sep 27	Kyle Juszczyk	0	27.5	-100%
Sep 20	George Holani	2	14.8	-86%
Sep 13	Alec Ingold	0	17.5	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	2%0.0 yds	2%20.0 yds
Short	30%8.6 yds	22%7.7 yds	44%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 43 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	27	Over	22.5	60 (73%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	67	Over	13.5	70 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	70	Over	12.5	61 (71%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	12	Under	16.5	34 (55%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	24	Over	10.5	39 (64%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	22	Over	13.5	31 (51%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	30	Over	10.5	49 (63%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	18	Under	18.5	48 (63%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	21	Over	12.5	47 (63%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	38	Over	11.5	46 (71%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	15	Under	9.5	65 (71%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	10	Under	10.5	39 (54%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	13	Under	15.5	36 (51%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	0	Under	10.5	35 (67%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	2	Under	10.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	5	Under	10.5	35 (69%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	11	Under	15.5	40 (58%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	0	Under	0.5	55 (69%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	11	Under	10.5	42 (60%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	37	Over	14.5	40 (75%)
2025-10-02	5	vs SF	66	Over	37.5	62 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	vs IND	17	Under	10.5	51 (68%)
2025-09-21	3	@ PHI	18	Under	17.5	50 (76%)
2025-09-14	2	@ TEN	14	Under	10.5	43 (70%)
2025-09-07	1	vs HOU	3	Under	10.5	49 (82%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ PHI	-1	Under	—	71 (100%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	vs MIN	16	Under	—	46 (87%)
2024-12-28	17	vs ARI	16	Under	—	54 (95%)
2024-12-22	16	@ NYJ	7	Under	—	43 (83%)
2024-12-12	15	@ SF	4	Under	—	56 (86%)
2024-12-08	14	vs BUF	10	Under	—	64 (83%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NO	9	Under	—	38 (68%)
2024-11-24	12	vs PHI	0	Under	—	58 (91%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NE	0	Under	—	42 (81%)
2024-11-11	10	vs MIA	20	Over	—	65 (93%)
2024-11-03	9	@ SEA	26	Over	—	76 (99%)
2024-10-24	8	vs MIN	19	Under	—	64 (89%)
2024-10-20	7	vs LV	0	Under	—	49 (89%)
2024-10-06	5	vs GB	3	Under	—	67 (86%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CHI	10	Under	—	48 (79%)
2024-09-22	3	vs SF	27	Over	—	52 (90%)
2024-09-15	2	@ ARI	27	Over	—	41 (79%)
2024-09-08	1	@ DET	4	Under	—	71 (91%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.