NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Alvin Kamara RB

NO vs NYG · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

11.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 72%21/29 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 10.2
Graph avg: 26.6
Graph median: 24.0-6–65
Over the close: 29%4/14

2026 per game

Carries7.0▼-4.9

Rush Yds21.5▼-21.3

Rush TD0.5▲+0.4

Targets4.0▲+0.5

Rec3.2▲+0.2

Rec Yds10.2▼-6.7

Snaps21.0▼-20.5

Snap %31.5%▼-32.2

11.5

2024

27

Sep 08
65

Sep 15
40

Sep 22
42

Sep 29
40

Oct 07
24

Oct 13
14

Oct 17
55

Oct 27
60

Nov 03
54

Nov 10
22

Nov 17
7

Dec 01
35

Dec 08
58

Dec 15
2025

12

Sep 07
21

Sep 14
14

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
28

Oct 05
45

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
24

Oct 26
3

Nov 02
32

Nov 09
4

Nov 23
2026

7

Sep 20
5

Sep 27
35

Oct 05
-6

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 76% 13/17 · avg 24.4
Away 67% 8/12 · avg 29.7
vs NYG 100% 2/2 · avg 31.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 93% 27/29
O 6.5 79% 23/29
O 11.5 Today 72% 21/29
O 16.5 62% 18/29
O 21.5 59% 17/29

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs NYG

What NYG allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds96.4#15
Yds/Carry4.4#13
Rush TD0.6#18
Targets3.5#32
Rec Yds21.9#29

RBs vs NYG · 2026

Each main RB who faced NYG this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-14.2

Avg diff %-68%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Rachaad White	2	17.0	-88%
Oct 04	Jeremiyah Love	-8	11.0	-173%
Sep 27	Tyjae Spears	0	17.0	-100%
Sep 21	Kyren Williams	12	47.0	-74%
Sep 13	Javonte Williams	31	15.8	+97%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NO offense

NO offense: Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%7.6 yds	3%18.2 yds	7%13.7 yds
Short	32%5.7 yds	15%8.7 yds	33%5.5 yds

Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYG defense

NYG defense: Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	2%21.6 yds#4	8%8.9 yds#26
Short	30%5.9 yds#15	15%8.2 yds#9	36%6.0 yds#9

Throws NYG faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	50%5.5 yds	12%7.2 yds	35%2.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NO targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Chris Olave WR	5	10.8	54	27.9%
2	Devaughn Vele WR	5	7.4	37	19.7%
3	Juwan Johnson TE	5	6.4	32	16.8%
4	Alvin Kamara RB	4	4.0	16	11.1%
5	Travis Etienne RB	3	4.3	13	9.5%
6	Bryce Lance WR	5	3.2	16	8.3%
7	Noah Fant TE	4	3.2	13	7.4%
8	Kendre Miller RB	4	1.5	6	3.5%
9	Kevin Austin Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	3.1%
10	CJ Donaldson RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 29 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 11.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs MIN	-6	Under	15.5	12 (27%)
2026-10-05	4	vs ATL	35	Over	15.5	28 (38%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LV	5	Under	13.5	24 (32%)
2026-09-20	2	@ BAL	7	Under	12.5	20 (29%)
2025-11-23	12	vs ATL	4	Under	15.5	11 (14%)
2025-11-09	10	@ CAR	32	Over	32.5	43 (63%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LA	3	Under	10.5	24 (59%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TB	24	Over	21.5	37 (51%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CHI	1	Under	5.5	47 (84%)
2025-10-12	6	vs NE	45	Over	18.5	35 (62%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NYG	28	Over	30.5	37 (56%)
2025-09-28	4	@ BUF	2	Under	2.5	49 (73%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SEA	14	Over	—	54 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SF	21	Over	15.5	61 (86%)
2025-09-07	1	vs ARI	12	Over	29.5	59 (79%)
2024-12-15	15	vs WAS	58	Over	—	25 (45%)
2024-12-08	14	@ NYG	35	Over	—	49 (72%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LA	7	Under	—	60 (86%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CLE	22	Over	—	44 (73%)
2024-11-10	10	vs ATL	54	Over	—	43 (81%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CAR	60	Over	—	61 (77%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LAC	55	Over	—	40 (55%)
2024-10-17	7	vs DEN	14	Over	—	40 (57%)
2024-10-13	6	vs TB	24	Over	—	52 (74%)
2024-10-07	5	@ KC	40	Over	—	47 (89%)
2024-09-29	4	@ ATL	42	Over	—	61 (82%)
2024-09-22	3	vs PHI	40	Over	—	48 (86%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DAL	65	Over	—	37 (63%)
2024-09-08	1	vs CAR	27	Over	—	34 (52%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 11.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 2m ago.