NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Ja'Marr Chase WR

CIN vs BAL · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

84.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 55%21/38 Odds imply —

Season avg: 57.8
Graph avg: 89.7
Graph median: 88.512–264
Over the close: 60%12/20

2026 per game

Targets7.6▼-4.0

Rec5.4▼-2.4

Rec Yds57.8▼-30.5

Rec TD0.8▲+0.3

Snaps48.6▼-13.1

Snap %78.2%▼-16.2

84.5

2024

62

Sep 08
35

Sep 15
118

Sep 23
85

Sep 29
193

Oct 06
72

Oct 13
55

Oct 20
54

Oct 27
43

Nov 03
264

Nov 07
75

Nov 17
86

Dec 01
177

Dec 09
94

Dec 15
97

Dec 22
102

Dec 28
96

Jan 04
2025

26

Sep 07
165

Sep 14
50

Sep 21
23

Sep 29
110

Oct 05
94

Oct 12
161

Oct 16
91

Oct 26
111

Nov 02
30

Nov 16
110

Nov 27
44

Dec 07
132

Dec 14
109

Dec 21
60

Dec 28
96

Jan 04
2026

12

Sep 13
75

Sep 20
98

Sep 27
27

Oct 04
77

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 84.5

Home 67% 12/18 · avg 95.6
Away 45% 9/20 · avg 84.5
vs BAL 100% 4/4 · avg 174.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 64.5 66% 25/38
O 74.5 63% 24/38
O 84.5 Today 55% 21/38
O 94.5 42% 16/38
O 104.5 29% 11/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds188.7#1
Receptions13.9#1
Targets20.8#3
Yds/Target9.1#4
Rec TD0.5#27

WRs vs BAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.4

Avg diff %+21%

Beat their average58% (7/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Denzel Boston	15	66.0	-77%
Oct 18	KC Concepcion	37	29.8	+24%
Oct 11	Drake London	118	86.4	+37%
Oct 11	Jahan Dotson	54	36.4	+48%
Oct 04	Carnell Tate	145	39.8	+264%
Oct 04	Wan'Dale Robinson	19	35.8	-47%
Sep 27	CeeDee Lamb	112	93.0	+20%
Sep 27	George Pickens	82	69.2	+18%
Sep 20	Chris Olave	86	98.8	-13%
Sep 20	Devaughn Vele	64	46.0	+39%
Sep 13	Josh Downs	37	50.4	-27%
Sep 13	Keenan Allen	32	48.8	-34%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%14.4 yds	3%15.0 yds	7%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.1 yds	19%8.2 yds	34%6.0 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.5 yds#9	5%16.1 yds#14	6%15.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.6 yds#17	18%6.3 yds#23	34%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.0 yds	2%33.5 yds	6%11.8 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	22%8.3 yds	34%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	5	8.6	43	22.4%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	5	7.6	38	22.2%
3	Chase Brown RB	5	5.6	28	14.6%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	4	4.2	17	11.1%
6	Erick All TE	2	3.0	6	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	8.6%
8	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
9	Drew Sample TE	3	2.0	6	5.8%
10	Samaje Perine RB	5	2.0	10	5.7%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 84.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ MIA	77	Under	76.5	58 (89%)
2026-10-04	4	vs JAX	27	Under	83.5	15 (20%)
2026-09-27	3	@ PIT	98	Over	76.5	57 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ HOU	75	Under	76.5	53 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	12	Under	85.5	60 (94%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	96	Over	77.5	68 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	60	Under	60.5	59 (77%)
2025-12-21	16	@ MIA	109	Over	87.5	53 (87%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BAL	132	Over	93.5	74 (97%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BUF	44	Under	30.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ BAL	110	Over	110.5	82 (99%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PIT	30	Under	27.5	64 (97%)
2025-11-02	9	vs CHI	111	Over	91.5	67 (99%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYJ	91	Over	85.5	58 (98%)
2025-10-16	7	vs PIT	161	Over	125.5	75 (99%)
2025-10-12	6	@ GB	94	Over	—	65 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DET	110	Over	50.5	57 (92%)
2025-09-29	4	@ DEN	23	Under	26.5	46 (96%)
2025-09-21	3	@ MIN	50	Under	72.5	48 (86%)
2025-09-14	2	vs JAX	165	Over	150.5	66 (96%)
2025-09-07	1	@ CLE	26	Under	35.5	45 (87%)
2025-01-04	18	@ PIT	96	Over	—	73 (99%)
2024-12-28	17	vs DEN	102	Over	—	88 (98%)
2024-12-22	16	vs CLE	97	Over	—	50 (89%)
2024-12-15	15	@ TEN	94	Over	—	67 (97%)
2024-12-09	14	@ DAL	177	Over	—	66 (93%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PIT	86	Over	—	60 (97%)
2024-11-17	11	@ LAC	75	Under	—	81 (99%)
2024-11-07	10	@ BAL	264	Over	—	77 (94%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LV	43	Under	—	65 (88%)
2024-10-27	8	vs PHI	54	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-20	7	@ CLE	55	Under	—	48 (87%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NYG	72	Under	—	49 (92%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BAL	193	Over	—	59 (88%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CAR	85	Over	—	53 (79%)
2024-09-23	3	vs WAS	118	Over	—	61 (98%)
2024-09-15	2	@ KC	35	Under	—	59 (92%)
2024-09-08	1	vs NE	62	Under	—	43 (84%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 84.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 15m ago.