NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

T.J. Hockenson TE

MIN vs IND · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

39.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 36%11/31 Odds imply —

Season avg: 40.4
Graph avg: 37.4
Graph median: 29.02–119
Over the close: 63%12/19

2026 per game

Targets5.4▲+1.0

Rec4.6▲+1.2

Rec Yds40.4▲+11.2

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps39.2▼-6.9

Snap %61.2%▼-16.7

39.5

2024

27

Nov 03
72

Nov 10
13

Nov 17
114

Nov 24
28

Dec 01
45

Dec 08
52

Dec 16
27

Dec 22
68

Dec 29
9

Jan 05
64

Jan 13
2025

15

Sep 08
12

Sep 14
49

Sep 21
39

Sep 28
38

Oct 05
43

Oct 19
26

Oct 23
11

Nov 02
8

Nov 09
39

Nov 16
19

Nov 23
59

Nov 30
12

Dec 07
66

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
2026

36

Sep 13
29

Sep 20
11

Sep 27
119

Oct 04
7

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 39.5

Home 46% 6/13 · avg 41.4
Away 28% 5/18 · avg 34.5
vs IND 0% 0/1 · avg 27.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 48% 15/31
O 34.5 48% 15/31
O 39.5 Today 36% 11/31
O 44.5 32% 10/31
O 49.5 26% 8/31

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs IND

What IND allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds55.9#12
Receptions4.9#18
Targets7.3#17
Yds/Target7.7#9
Rec TD0.5#9

TEs vs IND · 2026

Each main TE who faced IND this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.5

Avg diff %-39%

Beat their average17% (1/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Daniel Bellinger	0	6.0	-100%
Oct 11	Darnell Washington	12	28.8	-58%
Oct 04	Chig Okonkwo	5	38.0	-87%
Sep 27	Dalton Schultz	30	49.4	-39%
Sep 20	Travis Kelce	101	49.5	+104%
Sep 13	Matthew Hibner	13	28.5	-54%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%15.9 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%7.5 yds
Short	27%4.8 yds	17%7.4 yds	35%5.5 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%12.2 yds#11	3%13.7 yds#22	10%11.7 yds#12
Short	30%6.0 yds#12	20%9.2 yds#1	33%5.8 yds#12

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%9.0 yds	4%22.5 yds	9%17.8 yds
Short	28%6.0 yds	24%6.5 yds	30%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	4	6.0	24	25.7%
2	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
3	T.J. Hockenson TE	5	5.4	27	20.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	5	3.6	18	12.6%
5	Gavin Bartholomew TE	2	3.5	7	11.9%
6	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
7	Tai Felton WR	3	2.0	6	7.1%
8	Myles Price WR	5	1.4	7	5.0%
9	Jauan Jennings WR	4	1.2	5	4.7%
10	Ben Yurosek TE	1	1.0	1	3.4%

Game log · 31 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 39.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NO	7	Under	40.5	2 (3%)
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	119	Over	38.5	65 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	11	Under	29.5	50 (85%)
2026-09-20	2	@ CHI	29	Under	30.5	36 (69%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	36	Under	24.5	43 (66%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NYG	2	Under	26.5	46 (75%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DAL	66	Over	60.5	44 (80%)
2025-12-07	14	vs WAS	12	Under	10.5	36 (56%)
2025-11-30	13	@ SEA	59	Over	60.5	41 (79%)
2025-11-23	12	@ GB	19	Under	—	30 (68%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CHI	39	Under	7.5	44 (80%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BAL	8	Under	10.5	59 (91%)
2025-11-02	9	@ DET	11	Under	15.5	48 (77%)
2025-10-23	8	@ LAC	26	Under	20.5	40 (82%)
2025-10-19	7	vs PHI	43	Over	31.5	57 (83%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CLE	38	Under	15.5	55 (85%)
2025-09-28	4	@ PIT	39	Under	25.5	71 (93%)
2025-09-21	3	vs CIN	49	Over	28.5	41 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	vs ATL	12	Under	10.5	34 (72%)
2025-09-08	1	@ CHI	15	Under	10.5	45 (80%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	@ LA	64	Over	—	44 (59%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DET	9	Under	—	51 (78%)
2024-12-29	17	vs GB	68	Over	—	50 (69%)
2024-12-22	16	@ SEA	27	Under	—	46 (70%)
2024-12-16	15	vs CHI	52	Over	—	50 (65%)
2024-12-08	14	vs ATL	45	Over	—	37 (62%)
2024-12-01	13	vs ARI	28	Under	—	34 (64%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CHI	114	Over	—	48 (68%)
2024-11-17	11	@ TEN	13	Under	—	35 (48%)
2024-11-10	10	@ JAX	72	Over	—	39 (46%)
2024-11-03	9	vs IND	27	Under	—	33 (45%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 38.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 11m ago.