NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Denzel Boston WR

CLE vs BAL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

50.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 60%3/5 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 66.0
Graph avg: 66.0
Graph median: 59.041–95
Over the close: 60%3/5

2026 per game

Targets5.8

Rec3.2

Rec Yds66.0

Rec TD0.6

Snaps57.2

Snap %92.0%

50.5

2026

59

Sep 13
95

Sep 20
41

Sep 27
89

Oct 01
46

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 50.5

Home 50% 1/2 · avg 65.0
Away 67% 2/3 · avg 66.7
vs BAL No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 40.5 100% 5/5
O 45.5 80% 4/5
O 50.5 Today 60% 3/5
O 55.5 60% 3/5
O 60.5 40% 2/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds195.0#1
Receptions13.9#1
Targets20.9#4
Yds/Target9.3#4
Rec TD0.5#28

WRs vs BAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+11.0

Avg diff %+37%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake London	118	92.5	+28%
Oct 11	Jahan Dotson	54	23.8	+127%
Oct 04	Wan'Dale Robinson	19	39.2	-52%
Oct 04	Carnell Tate	145	32.2	+350%
Sep 27	CeeDee Lamb	112	98.8	+13%
Sep 27	George Pickens	82	68.2	+20%
Sep 20	Chris Olave	86	112.8	-24%
Sep 20	Devaughn Vele	64	47.0	+36%
Sep 13	Josh Downs	37	53.0	-30%
Sep 13	Laquon Treadwell	0	39.2	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CLE offense

CLE offense: Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%10.9 yds	6%13.1 yds	5%10.6 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	18%7.6 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%16.0 yds#3	5%14.3 yds#19	7%17.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.8 yds#16	16%5.8 yds#27	35%5.2 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 5 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%17.8 yds	7%23.0 yds	10%9.3 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	10%22.7 yds	28%6.5 yds

Last 5 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CLE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KC Concepcion WR	5	5.8	29	20.0%
2	Denzel Boston WR	5	5.8	29	19.6%
3	Harold Fannin Jr. TE	5	5.4	27	18.3%
4	Quinshon Judkins RB	5	4.0	20	13.2%
5	Jerry Jeudy WR	4	3.8	15	13.1%
6	Isaiah Bond WR	3	3.0	9	9.4%
7	Raheim Sanders RB	5	2.4	12	8.6%
8	Blake Whiteheart TE	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Jaleel McLaughlin RB	3	0.7	2	2.2%
10	Michael Burton FB	2	0.5	1	1.7%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 50.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NYJ	46	Under	47.5	62 (91%)
2026-10-01	4	vs PIT	89	Over	38.5	61 (95%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CAR	41	Under	45.5	62 (89%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TB	95	Over	30.5	54 (93%)
2026-09-13	1	@ JAX	59	Over	25.5	47 (92%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 49.5PrizePicks 52.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.