NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Zay Flowers WR

BAL vs CLE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

58.5 Rec Yds O -115U -110

Hit rate · All 60%23/38 Odds imply 50.5% Over

Season avg: 101.2
Graph avg: 70.4
Graph median: 70.06–150
Over the close: 57%12/21

2026 per game

Targets7.8▲+0.8

Rec6.5▲+1.4

Rec Yds101.2▲+30.0

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps37.5▼-14.1

Snap %54.2%▼-32.2

58.5

2024

37

Sep 05
91

Sep 15
20

Sep 22
10

Sep 29
111

Oct 06
132

Oct 13
11

Oct 21
115

Oct 27
127

Nov 03
34

Nov 07
39

Nov 17
62

Nov 25
74

Dec 01
53

Dec 15
100

Dec 21
31

Dec 25
12

Jan 04
2025

143

Sep 07
75

Sep 14
13

Sep 22
74

Sep 28
72

Oct 05
46

Oct 12
63

Oct 26
64

Oct 30
75

Nov 09
78

Nov 16
58

Nov 23
6

Nov 27
124

Dec 07
68

Dec 14
84

Dec 21
30

Dec 27
138

Jan 04
2026

150

Sep 13
84

Sep 27
118

Oct 04
53

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 58.5

Home 61% 11/18 · avg 68.8
Away 60% 12/20 · avg 71.8
vs CLE 75% 3/4 · avg 70.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 48.5 68% 26/38
O 53.5 63% 24/38
O 58.5 Today 60% 23/38
O 63.5 55% 21/38
O 68.5 50% 19/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CLE

What CLE allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds132.4#20
Receptions10.2#24
Targets17.6#16
Yds/Target7.5#24
Rec TD1.3#2

WRs vs CLE · 2026

Each main WR who faced CLE this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-24.4

Avg diff %-36%

Beat their average20% (2/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Garrett Wilson	104	67.5	+54%
Oct 11	Isaiah Williams	16	33.8	-53%
Oct 01	Germie Bernard	11	43.0	-74%
Oct 01	Michael Pittman	15	37.0	-59%
Sep 27	Tetairoa McMillan	17	122.7	-86%
Sep 27	Jalen Coker	18	102.0	-82%
Sep 20	Emeka Egbuka	16	44.0	-64%
Sep 20	Ted Hurst III	27	33.7	-20%
Sep 13	Parker Washington	83	67.2	+23%
Sep 13	Jakobi Meyers	40	40.5	-1%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%19.9 yds	3%14.1 yds	7%14.9 yds
Short	27%6.6 yds	24%9.8 yds	31%5.3 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CLE defense

CLE defense: Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	5%16.4 yds#13	7%6.2 yds#30
Short	30%4.7 yds#31	14%7.0 yds#15	37%6.1 yds#8

Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%47.0 yds	8%12.8 yds	12%20.1 yds
Short	22%7.1 yds	22%15.5 yds	31%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	4	7.8	31	29.6%
2	Mark Andrews TE	5	6.0	30	22.8%
3	Rashod Bateman WR	5	4.2	21	15.3%
4	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	1	3.0	3	12.5%
5	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
6	Matthew Hibner TE	3	1.7	5	7.0%
7	Justice Hill RB	5	2.0	10	6.9%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Derrick Henry RB	5	1.8	9	6.6%
10	Devontez Walker WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 58.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ATL	53	Under	68.5	62 (82%)
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	118	Over	72.5	47 (73%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	84	Over	46.5	21 (33%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	150	Over	65.5	20 (29%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	138	Over	74.5	50 (98%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	30	Under	30.5	52 (68%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	84	Over	79.5	49 (89%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	68	Over	68.5	32 (78%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	124	Over	90.5	74 (92%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	6	Under	5.5	57 (95%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	58	Under	66.5	53 (84%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	78	Over	70.5	54 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	75	Over	75.5	58 (83%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	64	Over	68.5	46 (82%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	63	Over	57.5	59 (95%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	46	Under	46.5	71 (91%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	72	Over	47.5	36 (84%)
2025-09-28	4	@ KC	74	Over	66.5	48 (87%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	13	Under	30.5	49 (86%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CLE	75	Over	75.5	44 (79%)
2025-09-07	1	@ BUF	143	Over	135.5	46 (90%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	12	Under	—	14 (20%)
2024-12-25	17	@ HOU	31	Under	—	41 (65%)
2024-12-21	16	vs PIT	100	Over	—	54 (87%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NYG	53	Under	—	48 (81%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PHI	74	Over	—	68 (94%)
2024-11-25	12	@ LAC	62	Over	—	50 (77%)
2024-11-17	11	@ PIT	39	Under	—	51 (84%)
2024-11-07	10	vs CIN	34	Under	—	52 (83%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DEN	127	Over	—	30 (53%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CLE	115	Over	—	59 (87%)
2024-10-21	7	@ TB	11	Under	—	42 (71%)
2024-10-13	6	vs WAS	132	Over	—	49 (72%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CIN	111	Over	—	64 (82%)
2024-09-29	4	vs BUF	10	Under	—	39 (68%)
2024-09-22	3	@ DAL	20	Under	—	42 (67%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LV	91	Over	—	58 (89%)
2024-09-05	1	@ KC	37	Under	—	71 (89%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.