NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Efton Chism III WR

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

20.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · This season 40%2/5 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 19.6
Graph avg: 19.6
Graph median: 1.0-2–57
Over the close: 50%1/2

2026 per game

Targets2.8▲+2.4

Rec1.8▲+1.4

Rec Yds19.6▲+10.1

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps31.8▲+19.0

Snap %45.2%▲+25.3

20.5

2026

-2

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
42

Oct 04
57

Oct 11
0

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 20.5

Home 22% 2/9 · avg 12.2
Away 33% 2/6 · avg 13.8
vs CHI No games

Alt lines this season · how often Over cleared

O 10.5 40% 2/5
O 15.5 40% 2/5
O 20.5 Today 40% 2/5
O 25.5 40% 2/5
O 30.5 40% 2/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds183.7#2
Receptions12.0#10
Targets19.1#12
Yds/Target9.6#1
Rec TD1.1#5

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+9.9

Avg diff %+48%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake London	62	97.6	-36%
Oct 18	Jahan Dotson	87	29.8	+192%
Oct 11	Christian Watson	143	79.0	+81%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	123	75.6	+63%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	27	78.2	-65%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	73	15.6	+368%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	65	81.7	-20%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	32	50.4	-37%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	55	67.7	-19%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	21	47.3	-56%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	75	99.0	-24%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	138	60.3	+129%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 8 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%10.0 yds	0%	22%23.5 yds
Short	22%2.8 yds	22%13.5 yds	22%6.5 yds

Last 8 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 20.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	0	Under	11.5	42 (62%)
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	57	Over	24.5	57 (76%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	42	Over	—	34 (45%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	1	Under	—	16 (25%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	-2	Under	—	10 (18%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 18.5PrizePicks 20.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 13m ago.