NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Rico Dowdle RB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

7.5 Rec Yds O -111U -112

Hit rate · All 67%24/36 Odds imply 49.9% Over

Season avg: 14.0
Graph avg: 16.1
Graph median: 11.5-2–56
Over the close: 39%7/18

2026 per game

Carries7.5▼-5.9

Rush Yds18.5▼-41.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.3

Targets3.5▲+0.6

Rec2.0▼-0.2

Rec Yds14.0▼-2.8

Snaps28.5▼-5.7

Snap %42.0%▼-12.9

7.5

2024

6

Sep 08
29

Sep 15
24

Sep 22
15

Sep 26
27

Oct 06
30

Oct 13
32

Nov 03
3

Nov 10
6

Nov 18
12

Nov 24
11

Nov 28
10

Dec 09
0

Dec 15
28

Dec 22
4

Dec 29
12

Jan 05
2025

4

Sep 07
10

Sep 14
8

Sep 21
-2

Sep 28
28

Oct 05
56

Oct 12
17

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
11

Nov 02
10

Nov 09
55

Nov 16
36

Nov 24
21

Nov 30
5

Dec 14
14

Dec 21
4

Dec 28
20

Jan 03
6

Jan 10
2026

6

Sep 13
22

Sep 20
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

Home 68% 13/19 · avg 16.1
Away 65% 11/17 · avg 16.1
vs TB 100% 3/3 · avg 20.7

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 92% 33/36
O 7.5 Today 67% 24/36
O 12.5 44% 16/36
O 17.5 36% 13/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs TB

What TB allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds71.1#28
Yds/Carry3.9#22
Rush TD0.4#29
Targets5.8#11
Rec Yds35.7#9

RBs vs TB · 2026

Each main RB who faced TB this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+5.1

Avg diff %+51%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Javonte Williams	17	19.2	-12%
Oct 04	Chris Brooks	5	6.3	-21%
Sep 27	Aaron Jones	34	9.5	+258%
Sep 20	Quinshon Judkins	27	18.8	+44%
Sep 13	Chase Brown	22	25.5	-14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	56%4.0 yds	11%6.5 yds	33%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	22	Over	14.5	18 (26%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	6	Under	10.5	39 (58%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs LA	6	Under	6.5	24 (36%)
2026-01-03	18	@ TB	20	Over	12.5	27 (53%)
2025-12-28	17	vs SEA	4	Under	4.5	34 (64%)
2025-12-21	16	vs TB	14	Over	14.5	31 (57%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NO	5	Under	11.5	34 (60%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LA	21	Over	10.5	27 (42%)
2025-11-24	12	@ SF	36	Over	15.5	30 (65%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ATL	55	Over	15.5	66 (82%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NO	10	Over	10.5	42 (79%)
2025-11-02	9	@ GB	11	Over	—	42 (72%)
2025-10-26	8	vs BUF	0	Under	10.5	22 (36%)
2025-10-19	7	@ NYJ	17	Over	17.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DAL	56	Over	—	59 (88%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIA	28	Over	14.5	47 (67%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NE	-2	Under	10.5	27 (39%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ATL	8	Over	8.5	23 (40%)
2025-09-14	2	@ ARI	10	Over	10.5	25 (29%)
2025-09-07	1	@ JAX	4	Under	0.5	22 (34%)
2025-01-05	18	vs WAS	12	Over	—	52 (67%)
2024-12-29	17	@ PHI	4	Under	—	41 (66%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TB	28	Over	—	46 (77%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CAR	0	Under	—	54 (74%)
2024-12-09	14	vs CIN	10	Over	—	46 (77%)
2024-11-28	13	vs NYG	11	Over	—	53 (70%)
2024-11-24	12	@ WAS	12	Over	—	40 (61%)
2024-11-18	11	vs HOU	6	Under	—	41 (49%)
2024-11-10	10	vs PHI	3	Under	—	31 (52%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ATL	32	Over	—	55 (71%)
2024-10-13	6	vs DET	30	Over	—	19 (28%)
2024-10-06	5	@ PIT	27	Over	—	38 (50%)
2024-09-26	4	@ NYG	15	Over	—	25 (45%)
2024-09-22	3	vs BAL	24	Over	—	37 (46%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NO	29	Over	—	30 (43%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CLE	6	Under	—	28 (44%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 7.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.