NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brenton Strange TE

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

37.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 44%14/32 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 47.0
Graph avg: 37.3
Graph median: 26.50–95
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Targets5.2▲+0.2

Rec4.2▲+0.5

Rec Yds47.0▲+4.8

Rec TD0.2-0.0

Snaps49.4▲+0.2

Snap %79.2%▲+3.4

37.5

2024

65

Sep 15
12

Sep 23
19

Sep 29
24

Oct 06
11

Oct 13
59

Oct 27
25

Nov 10
6

Nov 17
14

Dec 01
21

Dec 08
73

Dec 15
22

Dec 22
0

Dec 29
60

Jan 05
2025

59

Sep 07
17

Sep 14
61

Sep 21
45

Sep 28
22

Oct 06
93

Nov 23
45

Nov 30
27

Dec 07
26

Dec 14
39

Dec 21
54

Dec 28
52

Jan 04
9

Jan 11
2026

23

Sep 13
17

Sep 20
32

Sep 27
95

Oct 04
68

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 37.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 37.6
Away 47% 7/15 · avg 37.1
vs HOU 33% 1/3 · avg 31.3

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 27.5 47% 15/32
O 32.5 44% 14/32
O 37.5 Today 44% 14/32
O 42.5 41% 13/32
O 47.5 34% 11/32

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds40.7#25
Receptions4.6#20
Targets6.8#22
Yds/Target6.0#27
Rec TD0.2#23

TEs vs HOU · 2026

Each main TE who faced HOU this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+20.5

Avg diff %+35%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Gunnar Helm	0	15.0	-100%
Oct 04	Jake Ferguson	11	22.8	-52%
Sep 27	Tyler Warren	55	39.5	+39%
Sep 13	Dalton Kincaid	130	36.8	+254%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%17.7 yds	0%	6%7.7 yds
Short	35%7.0 yds	27%7.6 yds	27%7.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 32 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 37.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	68	Over	33.5	58 (81%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	95	Over	36.5	53 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	32	Under	30.5	48 (77%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	17	Under	30.5	49 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	23	Under	36.5	39 (68%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	9	Under	9.5	49 (88%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	52	Over	52.5	38 (62%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	54	Over	54.5	56 (81%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	39	Over	39.5	52 (74%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	26	Under	10.5	51 (82%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	27	Under	41.5	51 (80%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	45	Over	45.5	53 (84%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	93	Over	55.5	44 (71%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	22	Under	36.5	22 (38%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	45	Over	40.5	50 (74%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	61	Over	55.5	58 (83%)
2025-09-14	2	@ CIN	17	Under	20.5	64 (90%)
2025-09-07	1	vs CAR	59	Over	31.5	52 (79%)
2025-01-05	18	@ IND	60	Over	—	50 (72%)
2024-12-29	17	vs TEN	0	Under	—	42 (72%)
2024-12-22	16	@ LV	22	Under	—	34 (51%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NYJ	73	Over	—	69 (82%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TEN	21	Under	—	26 (44%)
2024-12-01	13	vs HOU	14	Under	—	29 (41%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DET	6	Under	—	24 (50%)
2024-11-10	10	vs MIN	25	Under	—	18 (41%)
2024-10-27	8	vs GB	59	Over	—	22 (39%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CHI	11	Under	—	23 (37%)
2024-10-06	5	vs IND	24	Under	—	49 (84%)
2024-09-29	4	@ HOU	19	Under	—	42 (72%)
2024-09-23	3	@ BUF	12	Under	—	50 (70%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CLE	65	Over	—	41 (68%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 37.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 4m ago.