NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jake Ferguson TE

DAL vs GB · Sun Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET

24.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 47%17/36 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 20.4
Graph avg: 33.2
Graph median: 23.50–95
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Targets4.2▼-1.8

Rec3.0▼-1.8

Rec Yds20.4▼-14.9

Rec TD0.6▲+0.1

Snaps46.6▲+0.4

Snap %71.8%▲+5.1

24.5

2024

15

Sep 08
95

Sep 22
49

Sep 26
70

Oct 06
11

Oct 13
23

Oct 27
71

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
11

Nov 18
32

Dec 09
23

Dec 15
40

Dec 22
18

Dec 29
12

Jan 05
2025

23

Sep 04
78

Sep 14
82

Sep 21
40

Sep 28
49

Oct 05
33

Oct 12
29

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
50

Nov 03
16

Nov 17
60

Nov 23
36

Nov 27
58

Dec 04
16

Dec 14
19

Dec 21
6

Dec 25
5

Jan 04
2026

6

Sep 13
43

Sep 20
23

Sep 27
11

Oct 04
19

Oct 08
?

Oct 19

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 24.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 35.4
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 31.0
vs GB 100% 1/1 · avg 40.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 14.5 78% 28/36
O 19.5 61% 22/36
O 24.5 Today 47% 17/36
O 29.5 44% 16/36
O 34.5 39% 14/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs GB

What GB allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds47.0#19
Receptions4.6#21
Targets7.6#12
Yds/Target6.2#24
Rec TD0.2#24

TEs vs GB · 2026

Each main TE who faced GB this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-8.9

Avg diff %-31%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Colston Loveland	19	22.8	-16%
Oct 04	Cade Otton	37	36.2	+2%
Sep 24	Kyle Pitts	5	26.0	-81%
Sep 20	Kenyon Sadiq	17	32.2	-47%
Sep 13	T.J. Hockenson	36	41.5	-13%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.5 yds	5%21.2 yds	5%14.8 yds
Short	34%6.3 yds	16%5.7 yds	33%5.8 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.1 yds#7	3%11.0 yds#30	7%7.5 yds#28
Short	26%5.3 yds#23	20%6.3 yds#23	34%6.1 yds#7

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	5%9.5 yds	2%19.0 yds
Short	15%4.2 yds	32%6.1 yds	45%3.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	5	10.2	51	27.3%
2	George Pickens WR	5	8.2	41	22.2%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	5	5.4	27	14.8%
4	Javonte Williams RB	5	4.0	20	11.2%
5	Jake Ferguson TE	5	4.2	21	11.1%
6	Jonathan Mingo WR	3	2.3	7	5.8%
7	KaVontae Turpin WR	5	1.4	7	3.6%
8	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	2	1.0	2	2.4%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 24.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	19	Under	26.5	50 (83%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	11	Under	24.5	55 (71%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	23	Under	28.5	51 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	43	Over	27.5	33 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	6	Under	30.5	44 (76%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	5	Under	14.5	33 (60%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	6	Under	36.5	27 (29%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	19	Under	19.5	40 (69%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	16	Under	21.5	50 (71%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	58	Over	50.5	66 (80%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	36	Over	30.5	51 (71%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	60	Over	40.5	51 (69%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	16	Under	10.5	42 (63%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	50	Over	—	60 (90%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	0	Under	10.5	44 (59%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	29	Over	30.5	44 (66%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	33	Over	37.5	37 (67%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	49	Over	48.5	33 (55%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	40	Over	—	54 (78%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CHI	82	Over	70.5	42 (57%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	78	Over	36.5	65 (73%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	23	Under	38.5	47 (77%)
2025-01-05	18	vs WAS	12	Under	—	46 (59%)
2024-12-29	17	@ PHI	18	Under	—	42 (68%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TB	40	Over	—	35 (58%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CAR	23	Under	—	44 (60%)
2024-12-09	14	vs CIN	32	Over	—	46 (77%)
2024-11-18	11	vs HOU	11	Under	—	7 (8%)
2024-11-10	10	vs PHI	24	Under	—	45 (75%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ATL	71	Over	—	63 (82%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SF	23	Under	—	52 (84%)
2024-10-13	6	vs DET	11	Under	—	46 (67%)
2024-10-06	5	@ PIT	70	Over	—	57 (75%)
2024-09-26	4	@ NYG	49	Over	—	41 (73%)
2024-09-22	3	vs BAL	95	Over	—	53 (66%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CLE	15	Under	—	39 (62%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 24.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 4m ago.