NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Christian McCaffrey RB

SF vs WAS · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

39.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 27.4
Graph avg: 43.0
Graph median: 41.014–82
Over the close: 60%12/20

2026 per game

Carries12.2▼-5.5

Rush Yds57.2▼-10.4

Rush TD1.0▲+0.5

Targets5.0▼-2.5

Rec3.8▼-2.1

Rec Yds27.4▼-26.8

Snaps41.2▼-12.2

Snap %69.2%▼-12.5

39.5

2025

82

Oct 02
57

Oct 12
72

Oct 19
43

Oct 26
67

Nov 02
66

Nov 09
40

Nov 16
53

Nov 24
21

Nov 30
14

Dec 14
29

Dec 22
41

Dec 28
34

Jan 03
66

Jan 11
39

Jan 17
2026

20

Sep 10
43

Sep 20
41

Sep 27
18

Oct 04
15

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 39.5

Home 67% 8/12 · avg 49.1
Away 56% 9/16 · avg 45.2
vs WAS No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 70% 14/20
O 34.5 65% 13/20
O 39.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 44.5 35% 7/20
O 49.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds102.7#9
Yds/Carry4.5#9
Rush TD0.8#11
Targets4.9#21
Rec Yds24.6#28

RBs vs WAS · 2026

Each main RB who faced WAS this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-7.0

Avg diff %-35%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Cam Skattebo	12	16.8	-28%
Oct 04	Jonathan Taylor	2	26.0	-92%
Sep 27	Emanuel Wilson	0	10.0	-100%
Sep 20	Javonte Williams	20	18.5	+8%
Sep 13	Will Shipley	8	5.8	+39%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.3 yds	5%29.4 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.6 yds	26%5.6 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%4.0 yds#31	4%18.8 yds#7	8%12.8 yds#10
Short	30%5.3 yds#24	16%8.9 yds#3	34%5.2 yds#22

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%0.0 yds	0%	2%29.0 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	28%6.1 yds	35%5.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	5	6.8	34	24.5%
2	George Kittle TE	5	5.6	28	20.7%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	5	5.0	25	18.0%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	5	4.0	20	14.3%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	2	1.5	3	5.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	5	1.0	5	3.7%
10	Luke Farrell TE	5	0.8	4	2.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 39.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ SEA	15	Under	36.5	49 (82%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	18	Under	41.5	49 (74%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	41	Over	38.5	45 (83%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	43	Over	39.5	27 (52%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	20	Under	40.5	36 (55%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	39	Under	55.5	31 (52%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	66	Over	62.5	52 (88%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	34	Under	46.5	36 (86%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	41	Over	26.5	61 (85%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	29	Under	20.5	53 (80%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	14	Under	14.5	62 (84%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	21	Under	15.5	53 (79%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	53	Over	53.5	58 (83%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	40	Over	25.5	39 (71%)
2025-11-09	10	vs LA	66	Over	60.5	49 (78%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NYG	67	Over	49.5	57 (86%)
2025-10-26	8	@ HOU	43	Over	43.5	46 (96%)
2025-10-19	7	vs ATL	72	Over	50.5	50 (75%)
2025-10-12	6	@ TB	57	Over	36.5	64 (93%)
2025-10-02	5	@ LA	82	Over	65.5	76 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 39.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 2m ago.