NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kyle Pitts Sr. TE

ATL vs CHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

28.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 56%22/39 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 21.8
Graph avg: 42.0
Graph median: 38.00–166
Over the close: 36%8/22

2026 per game

Targets3.0▼-3.9

Rec2.0▼-3.2

Rec Yds21.8▼-32.8

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps35.6▼-20.9

Snap %55.6%▼-32.4

28.5

2024

26

Sep 08
20

Sep 16
59

Sep 22
0

Sep 29
88

Oct 03
70

Oct 13
65

Oct 20
91

Oct 27
11

Nov 03
55

Nov 10
9

Nov 17
0

Dec 01
14

Dec 08
28

Dec 16
7

Dec 22
44

Dec 29
15

Jan 05
2025

59

Sep 07
37

Sep 14
39

Sep 21
70

Sep 28
18

Oct 13
62

Oct 19
59

Oct 26
38

Nov 02
38

Nov 09
14

Nov 16
25

Nov 23
82

Nov 30
90

Dec 07
166

Dec 11
57

Dec 21
16

Dec 29
58

Jan 04
2026

0

Sep 13
15

Sep 20
5

Sep 24
47

Oct 05
42

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 28.5

Home 47% 9/19 · avg 37.5
Away 65% 13/20 · avg 46.4
vs CHI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 67% 26/39
O 23.5 64% 25/39
O 28.5 Today 56% 22/39
O 33.5 56% 22/39
O 38.5 49% 19/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds42.1#23
Receptions3.7#31
Targets6.0#27
Yds/Target7.0#18
Rec TD0.1#30

TEs vs CHI · 2026

Each main TE who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.7

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Tucker Kraft	64	37.0	+73%
Oct 04	Kenyon Sadiq	0	36.5	-100%
Sep 28	Zach Ertz	9	6.5	+38%
Sep 20	T.J. Hockenson	29	43.2	-33%
Sep 13	Darren Waller	28	40.0	-30%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.1 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%11.8 yds
Short	33%6.4 yds	19%6.6 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.1 yds#12	4%21.1 yds#5	9%15.2 yds#5
Short	31%4.9 yds#30	19%8.5 yds#6	30%6.2 yds#6

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	3%13.0 yds	12%11.9 yds
Short	12%13.7 yds	26%8.7 yds	43%6.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	5	7.2	36	28.6%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	5	5.0	25	21.0%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	5	3.4	17	13.7%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	5	3.0	15	11.3%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Zachariah Branch WR	5	1.6	8	6.2%
7	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	5	1.4	7	5.7%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	3	1.3	4	4.7%
9	Brian Robinson RB	5	0.8	4	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 28.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs BAL	42	Over	25.5	43 (67%)
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	47	Over	31.5	29 (51%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	5	Under	36.5	42 (59%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CAR	15	Under	32.5	26 (38%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PIT	0	Under	38.5	38 (63%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	58	Over	58.5	58 (92%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	16	Under	10.5	49 (92%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	57	Over	57.5	67 (87%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	166	Over	145.5	68 (96%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	90	Over	100.5	59 (92%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	82	Over	85.5	63 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	25	Under	51.5	53 (95%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	14	Under	14.5	55 (83%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	38	Over	30.5	58 (92%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	38	Over	44.5	53 (95%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	59	Over	51.5	46 (92%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	62	Over	63.5	53 (82%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	18	Under	20.5	65 (93%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	70	Over	50.5	48 (74%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	39	Over	39.5	54 (82%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	37	Over	40.5	53 (80%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TB	59	Over	37.5	59 (78%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CAR	15	Under	—	35 (44%)
2024-12-29	17	@ WAS	44	Over	—	30 (47%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NYG	7	Under	—	30 (45%)
2024-12-16	15	@ LV	28	Under	—	23 (40%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIN	14	Under	—	58 (78%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LAC	0	Under	—	33 (41%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	9	Under	—	44 (75%)
2024-11-10	10	@ NO	55	Over	—	40 (51%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DAL	11	Under	—	31 (54%)
2024-10-27	8	@ TB	91	Over	—	30 (48%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	65	Over	—	55 (75%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CAR	70	Over	—	45 (64%)
2024-10-03	5	vs TB	88	Over	—	74 (85%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NO	0	Under	—	38 (68%)
2024-09-22	3	vs KC	59	Over	—	42 (69%)
2024-09-16	2	@ PHI	20	Under	—	45 (74%)
2024-09-08	1	vs PIT	26	Under	—	54 (96%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 12m ago.