NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Keaton Mitchell RB

LAC vs DEN · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

13.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 20%4/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 8.5
Graph avg: 6.2
Graph median: 0.0-5–28
Over the close: 38%5/13

2026 per game

Carries6.8▲+2.2

Rush Yds31.0▲+4.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.1

Targets2.5▲+1.6

Rec2.2▲+1.6

Rec Yds8.5▲+3.7

Snaps21.5▲+11.3

Snap %32.8%▲+15.3

2024

28

Dec 25
0

Jan 04
0

Jan 19
2025

5

Oct 05
0

Oct 12
0

Oct 26
7

Oct 30
0

Nov 09
23

Nov 16
9

Nov 23
12

Nov 27
0

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
7

Dec 27
0

Jan 04
2026

0

Sep 13
15

Sep 20
-5

Sep 27
24

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 13.5

Home 9% 1/11 · avg 3.7
Away 27% 3/11 · avg 7.6
vs DEN No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 45% 9/20
O 8.5 30% 6/20
O 13.5 Today 20% 4/20
O 18.5 15% 3/20
O 23.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds90.7#20
Yds/Carry4.3#19
Rush TD0.4#29
Targets5.6#13
Rec Yds28.6#20

RBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main RB who faced DEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.8

Avg diff %-20%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Christian McCaffrey	18	34.7	-48%
Sep 27	Kyren Williams	70	34.3	+104%
Sep 20	Bhayshul Tuten	-3	19.0	-116%
Sep 14	Kenneth Walker III	18	22.0	-18%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.9 yds	2%13.6 yds	9%6.5 yds
Short	29%6.6 yds	14%5.4 yds	37%4.8 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%4.4 yds#31	4%8.4 yds#32	8%7.7 yds#28
Short	29%7.6 yds#2	13%6.6 yds#18	36%5.1 yds#23

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	41%6.1 yds	18%0.5 yds	41%4.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	4	5.2	21	17.8%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Oronde Gadsden II TE	4	3.8	15	12.5%
6	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	4	2.5	10	8.1%
8	Kimani Vidal RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
9	Charlie Kolar TE	2	1.5	3	5.8%
10	Omarion Hampton RB	4	1.2	5	4.3%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 13.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	24	Over	10.5	26 (37%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	-5	Under	3.5	26 (38%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	15	Over	8.5	17 (25%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	0	Under	7.5	17 (31%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	0	Under	0.5	7 (14%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	7	Under	0.5	14 (18%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	0	Under	0.5	19 (35%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	0	Under	0.5	16 (39%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	0	Under	3.5	12 (15%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	12	Under	12.5	8 (13%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	9	Under	0.5	12 (19%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	23	Over	4.5	16 (26%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	0	Under	10.5	5 (7%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	7	Under	—	10 (18%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	0	Under	—	7 (11%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	5	Under	—	4 (9%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	0	Under	—	—
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	0	Under	—	15 (21%)
2024-12-25	17	@ HOU	28	Over	—	17 (27%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 13.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 6m ago.