NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylen Waddle WR

DEN vs LAC · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

55.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 34%12/35 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 46.2
Graph avg: 52.5
Graph median: 45.0-4–144
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Targets6.5▲+0.2

Rec4.0+0.0

Rec Yds46.2▼-10.6

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps42.5▼-2.6

Snap %69.2%▼-8.4

2024

109

Sep 08
41

Sep 12
26

Sep 22
36

Sep 30
46

Oct 06
11

Oct 20
45

Oct 27
-4

Nov 03
57

Nov 11
37

Nov 17
144

Nov 24
53

Nov 28
99

Dec 08
0

Dec 15
44

Jan 05
2025

30

Sep 07
68

Sep 14
39

Sep 18
48

Sep 29
110

Oct 05
95

Oct 12
15

Oct 19
99

Oct 26
82

Oct 30
84

Nov 09
52

Nov 16
40

Nov 30
50

Dec 07
26

Dec 15
72

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
2026

2

Sep 14
138

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
35

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 55.5

Home 50% 9/18 · avg 66.7
Away 18% 3/17 · avg 37.6
vs LAC 100% 1/1 · avg 95.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 45.5 49% 17/35
O 50.5 40% 14/35
O 55.5 Today 34% 12/35
O 60.5 31% 11/35
O 65.5 31% 11/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds147.7#13
Receptions10.9#15
Targets17.2#16
Yds/Target8.6#11
Rec TD0.8#17

WRs vs LAC · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-10.1

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average25% (2/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	76	135.0	-44%
Oct 04	Cooper Kupp	13	33.7	-61%
Sep 27	Keon Coleman	37	60.0	-38%
Sep 27	Khalil Shakir	6	56.7	-89%
Sep 20	Tre Tucker	119	38.0	+213%
Sep 20	Jalen Nailor	9	21.5	-58%
Sep 13	Michael Wilson	56	67.3	-17%
Sep 13	Marvin Harrison Jr.	33	17.3	+90%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	2%8.2 yds	6%9.9 yds
Short	34%5.7 yds	11%4.5 yds	38%4.8 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%13.3 yds#7	3%9.6 yds#30	5%12.7 yds#8
Short	33%6.0 yds#12	16%7.3 yds#13	32%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%3.2 yds	3%35.5 yds	13%6.6 yds
Short	37%6.2 yds	10%10.2 yds	28%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	RJ Harvey RB	3	7.0	21	21.2%
2	Jaylen Waddle WR	4	6.5	26	21.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	4	5.5	22	17.7%
4	Evan Engram TE	4	3.2	13	10.4%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
7	Tyler Badie RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
8	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%
9	Jonah Coleman RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
10	Troy Franklin WR	3	1.3	4	4.6%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 55.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	35	Under	56.5	45 (68%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	10	Under	59.5	49 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	138	Over	54.5	38 (61%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	2	Under	59.5	38 (75%)
2025-12-28	17	vs TB	0	Under	35.5	14 (25%)
2025-12-21	16	vs CIN	72	Over	53.5	42 (71%)
2025-12-15	15	@ PIT	26	Under	25.5	42 (84%)
2025-12-07	14	@ NYJ	50	Under	66.5	51 (78%)
2025-11-30	13	vs NO	40	Under	70.5	55 (92%)
2025-11-16	11	vs WAS	52	Under	70.5	47 (84%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BUF	84	Over	66.5	44 (83%)
2025-10-30	9	vs BAL	82	Over	90.5	51 (80%)
2025-10-26	8	@ ATL	99	Over	61.5	54 (78%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CLE	15	Under	30.5	44 (76%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LAC	95	Over	95.5	46 (78%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CAR	110	Over	62.5	49 (89%)
2025-09-29	4	vs NYJ	48	Under	48.5	52 (90%)
2025-09-18	3	@ BUF	39	Under	20.5	53 (87%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NE	68	Over	65.5	47 (82%)
2025-09-07	1	@ IND	30	Under	35.5	31 (65%)
2025-01-05	18	@ NYJ	44	Under	—	63 (90%)
2024-12-15	15	@ HOU	0	Under	—	26 (38%)
2024-12-08	14	vs NYJ	99	Over	—	59 (82%)
2024-11-28	13	@ GB	53	Under	—	65 (92%)
2024-11-24	12	vs NE	144	Over	—	52 (76%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LV	37	Under	—	53 (78%)
2024-11-11	10	@ LA	57	Over	—	47 (89%)
2024-11-03	9	@ BUF	-4	Under	—	52 (85%)
2024-10-27	8	vs ARI	45	Under	—	56 (86%)
2024-10-20	7	@ IND	11	Under	—	59 (86%)
2024-10-06	5	@ NE	46	Under	—	61 (78%)
2024-09-30	4	vs TEN	36	Under	—	43 (72%)
2024-09-22	3	@ SEA	26	Under	—	51 (84%)
2024-09-12	2	vs BUF	41	Under	—	55 (72%)
2024-09-08	1	vs JAX	109	Over	—	51 (72%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 56.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.