NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Elic Ayomanor WR

TEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

16.5 Rec Yds O -109U -115

Hit rate · Last 20 70%14/20 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 28.2
Graph avg: 31.4
Graph median: 28.05–69
Over the close: 50%10/20

2026 per game

Targets2.5▼-3.1

Rec1.2▼-1.3

Rec Yds28.2▼-3.9

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps35.5▼-13.7

Snap %61.8%▼-18.8

2025

13

Sep 07
56

Sep 14
38

Sep 21
44

Sep 28
18

Oct 05
27

Oct 12
29

Oct 19
52

Oct 26
46

Nov 02
11

Nov 16
5

Nov 30
14

Dec 07
17

Dec 14
58

Dec 21
37

Dec 28
50

Jan 04
2026

11

Sep 13
69

Sep 20
11

Sep 27
22

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 16.5

Home 70% 7/10 · avg 36.0
Away 70% 7/10 · avg 26.8
vs HOU 50% 1/2 · avg 27.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 6.5 95% 19/20
O 11.5 80% 16/20
O 16.5 Today 70% 14/20
O 21.5 60% 12/20
O 26.5 55% 11/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds160.8#9
Receptions11.1#13
Targets18.2#11
Yds/Target8.8#10
Rec TD1.2#5

WRs vs HOU · 2026

Each main WR who faced HOU this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+11.9

Avg diff %+21%

Beat their average62% (5/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	CeeDee Lamb	189	79.5	+138%
Oct 04	George Pickens	75	70.0	+7%
Sep 27	Josh Downs	77	41.7	+85%
Sep 27	Laquon Treadwell	20	34.3	-42%
Sep 20	Tee Higgins	95	102.0	-7%
Sep 20	Ja'Marr Chase	75	45.7	+64%
Sep 13	Keon Coleman	1	72.0	-99%
Sep 13	Khalil Shakir	50	42.0	+19%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%5.7 yds	2%12.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	34%5.0 yds	10%4.6 yds	41%4.3 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.1 yds#8	3%23.1 yds#4	7%13.7 yds#6
Short	27%5.2 yds#26	19%6.6 yds#19	34%5.0 yds#24

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%6.0 yds	2%22.0 yds	12%21.0 yds
Short	50%5.1 yds	10%3.0 yds	15%4.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	4	8.0	32	29.9%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4	5.8	23	19.1%
3	Gunnar Helm TE	4	3.0	12	11.2%
4	Elic Ayomanor WR	4	2.5	10	10.1%
5	Tony Pollard RB	4	2.8	11	9.7%
6	Tyjae Spears RB	4	1.8	7	7.4%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	3	1.7	5	7.3%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	4	1.2	5	4.7%
9	Chimere Dike WR	4	0.8	3	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 16.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	22	Over	19.5	40 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	11	Under	13.5	48 (80%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	69	Over	9.5	28 (53%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	11	Under	9.5	26 (52%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	50	Over	40.5	51 (94%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	37	Over	23.5	60 (81%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	58	Over	22.5	41 (56%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	17	Over	17.5	43 (81%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	14	Under	14.5	53 (80%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	5	Under	10.5	50 (85%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	11	Under	15.5	50 (85%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	46	Over	46.5	30 (64%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	52	Over	40.5	67 (94%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	29	Over	37.5	51 (96%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	27	Over	10.5	57 (93%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	18	Over	37.5	48 (72%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	44	Over	44.5	41 (82%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	38	Over	34.5	52 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	56	Over	28.5	48 (73%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	13	Under	13.5	45 (79%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 16.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.