NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Keenan Allen WR

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 72%26/36 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 33.3
Graph avg: 45.7
Graph median: 38.05–141
Over the close: 21%3/14

2026 per game

Targets6.7▼-0.6

Rec4.3▼-0.3

Rec Yds33.3▼-11.2

Rec TD0.3▲+0.1

Snaps40.3▲+3.3

Snap %63.7%▲+7.9

2024

29

Sep 08
19

Sep 29
33

Oct 06
41

Oct 13
39

Oct 27
36

Nov 03
44

Nov 10
41

Nov 17
86

Nov 24
73

Nov 28
30

Dec 08
82

Dec 16
141

Dec 22
25

Dec 26
25

Jan 05
2025

68

Sep 05
61

Sep 15
65

Sep 21
37

Sep 28
58

Oct 05
27

Oct 12
119

Oct 19
44

Oct 23
41

Nov 02
19

Nov 09
53

Nov 16
30

Nov 30
22

Dec 08
36

Dec 14
44

Dec 21
17

Dec 27
36

Jan 04
25

Jan 11
2026

32

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
63

Sep 27
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 70% 14/20 · avg 49.8
Away 75% 12/16 · avg 40.6
vs PIT 0% 0/1 · avg 19.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 89% 32/36
O 24.5 86% 31/36
O 29.5 Today 72% 26/36
O 34.5 61% 22/36
O 39.5 47% 17/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds154.0#11
Receptions10.4#20
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target9.7#2
Rec TD0.8#18

WRs vs PIT · 2026

Each main WR who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.9

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Denzel Boston	89	65.0	+37%
Oct 01	KC Concepcion	64	26.7	+140%
Sep 27	Tee Higgins	90	103.7	-13%
Sep 27	Ja'Marr Chase	98	38.0	+158%
Sep 20	Mack Hollins	18	63.7	-72%
Sep 20	Romeo Doubs	96	35.7	+169%
Sep 13	Drake London	29	113.7	-74%
Sep 13	Jahan Dotson	19	25.3	-25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	6%6.5 yds
Short	38%5.2 yds	14%7.2 yds	39%3.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	63	Over	32.5	52 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	5	Under	29.5	33 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	32	Over	28.5	36 (67%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	25	Under	33.5	36 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	@ DEN	36	Over	—	38 (54%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	17	Under	20.5	36 (57%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	44	Over	44.5	30 (47%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	36	Over	36.5	28 (42%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	22	Under	20.5	42 (57%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	30	Over	30.5	40 (60%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	53	Over	55.5	36 (75%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	19	Under	41.5	37 (51%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	41	Over	41.5	24 (37%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	44	Over	45.5	18 (25%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	119	Over	119.5	49 (64%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	27	Under	—	36 (56%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	58	Over	—	39 (58%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	37	Over	—	49 (78%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	65	Over	—	56 (65%)
2025-09-15	2	@ LV	61	Over	—	32 (55%)
2025-09-05	1	vs KC	68	Over	—	40 (62%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	25	Under	—	54 (87%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	25	Under	—	58 (95%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	141	Over	—	59 (92%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	82	Over	—	55 (82%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	30	Over	—	47 (89%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	73	Over	—	64 (96%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	86	Over	—	68 (89%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	41	Over	—	66 (92%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	44	Over	—	56 (93%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	36	Over	—	69 (93%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	39	Over	—	61 (97%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	41	Over	—	53 (80%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	33	Over	—	61 (81%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	19	Under	—	41 (68%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	29	Under	—	38 (68%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.