NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Isaac TeSlaa WR

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

25.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 39%7/18 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 46.8
Graph avg: 23.7
Graph median: 15.50–95
Over the close: 44%7/16

2026 per game

Targets4.2▲+2.3

Rec2.2▲+1.1

Rec Yds46.8▲+29.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps47.5▲+19.2

Snap %68.2%▲+25.2

2025

13

Sep 07
29

Sep 14
0

Sep 22
12

Oct 05
0

Oct 20
11

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
35

Nov 27
20

Dec 04
0

Dec 14
52

Dec 21
49

Dec 25
18

Jan 04
2026

0

Sep 13
26

Sep 17
66

Sep 27
95

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 25.5

Home 50% 4/8 · avg 25.2
Away 30% 3/10 · avg 22.4
vs ARI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 15.5 50% 9/18
O 20.5 39% 7/18
O 25.5 Today 39% 7/18
O 30.5 28% 5/18
O 35.5 22% 4/18

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds143.1#15
Receptions9.8#26
Targets15.5#30
Yds/Target9.2#5
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+13.5

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	32.0	+250%
Oct 04	Darnell Mooney	0	31.7	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	59.7	-43%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	80	35.0	+129%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	108.7	+43%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	31.3	-36%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	63.0	-68%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	82	33.7	+144%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%22.0 yds	9%25.7 yds	9%0.0 yds
Short	31%4.8 yds	17%8.3 yds	17%8.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 18 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 25.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	95	Over	17.5	58 (82%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	66	Over	15.5	31 (48%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	26	Over	17.5	49 (75%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	0	Under	17.5	52 (68%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	18	Under	18.5	44 (60%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	49	Over	15.5	33 (52%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	52	Over	9.5	41 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	0	Under	0.5	40 (62%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	20	Under	20.5	48 (77%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	35	Over	—	58 (92%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	0	Under	10.5	28 (41%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	0	Under	6.5	20 (34%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	11	Under	11.5	20 (29%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	0	Under	10.5	9 (13%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	12	Under	6.5	21 (34%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	0	Under	10.5	14 (21%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	29	Over	7.5	17 (29%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	13	Under	—	3 (4%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 25.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.