NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jahan Dotson WR

ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET

19.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 28%10/36 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 23.8
Graph avg: 17.4
Graph median: 10.50–94
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Targets3.2▲+0.9

Rec1.5▲+0.4

Rec Yds23.8▲+7.4

Rec TD0.2▲+0.2

Snaps43.2▲+7.2

Snap %66.8%▲+9.4

2024

0

Sep 06
6

Sep 16
8

Sep 22
11

Sep 29
10

Oct 13
0

Oct 20
36

Nov 03
27

Nov 10
8

Nov 14
4

Nov 24
7

Dec 01
5

Dec 08
0

Dec 15
94

Jan 05
11

Jan 12
42

Feb 09
2025

59

Sep 04
4

Sep 14
7

Sep 21
0

Sep 28
24

Oct 05
17

Oct 09
40

Oct 26
0

Nov 10
43

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
12

Nov 28
3

Dec 08
13

Dec 20
0

Dec 28
40

Jan 04
0

Jan 11
2026

19

Sep 13
11

Sep 20
11

Sep 24
54

Oct 05
?

Oct 12

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 23.6
Away 12% 2/17 · avg 10.5
vs BAL 0% 0/1 · avg 7.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 9.5 53% 19/36
O 14.5 33% 12/36
O 19.5 Today 28% 10/36
O 24.5 25% 9/36
O 29.5 22% 8/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds192.4#1
Receptions13.8#2
Targets21.7#3
Yds/Target8.9#9
Rec TD0.6#25

WRs vs BAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.2

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Carnell Tate	145	41.0	+254%
Oct 04	Wan'Dale Robinson	19	34.7	-45%
Sep 27	CeeDee Lamb	112	98.8	+13%
Sep 27	George Pickens	82	68.2	+20%
Sep 20	Chris Olave	86	135.0	-36%
Sep 20	Devaughn Vele	64	54.0	+19%
Sep 13	Josh Downs	37	55.0	-33%
Sep 13	Laquon Treadwell	0	41.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.6 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%9.8 yds
Short	36%6.7 yds	18%6.4 yds	28%5.9 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.8 yds#2	5%16.8 yds#11	7%15.6 yds#3
Short	31%5.3 yds#23	17%5.7 yds#27	35%5.3 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	16%3.8 yds	9%10.3 yds	22%2.3 yds
Short	16%6.0 yds	16%5.4 yds	22%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	4	6.2	25	27.7%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	4	4.5	18	21.1%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	4	3.2	13	14.2%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	4	2.2	9	9.7%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	4	1.8	7	7.2%
7	Zachariah Branch WR	4	1.5	6	6.3%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	2	1.0	2	4.1%
9	Brian Robinson RB	4	0.8	3	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	54	Over	19.5	36 (63%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	11	Under	17.5	47 (66%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CAR	11	Under	17.5	52 (75%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PIT	19	Under	14.5	38 (63%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	0	Under	0.5	38 (52%)
2026-01-04	18	vs WAS	40	Over	30.5	60 (94%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	0	Under	0.5	26 (48%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	13	Under	10.5	46 (66%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	3	Under	10.5	35 (49%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	12	Under	7.5	32 (59%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	0	Under	10.5	34 (54%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	43	Over	45.5	23 (32%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	0	Under	—	19 (30%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	40	Over	15.5	42 (71%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	17	Under	17.5	43 (75%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	24	Over	8.5	44 (72%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	0	Under	10.5	31 (54%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	7	Under	10.5	52 (78%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	4	Under	10.5	22 (37%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	59	Over	7.5	29 (46%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	42	Over	—	44 (59%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs GB	11	Under	—	34 (57%)
2025-01-05	18	vs NYG	94	Over	—	64 (94%)
2024-12-15	15	vs PIT	0	Under	—	36 (45%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CAR	5	Under	—	24 (41%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BAL	7	Under	—	36 (64%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LA	4	Under	—	50 (68%)
2024-11-14	11	vs WAS	8	Under	—	29 (41%)
2024-11-10	10	@ DAL	27	Over	—	30 (44%)
2024-11-03	9	vs JAX	36	Over	—	42 (53%)
2024-10-20	7	@ NYG	0	Under	—	38 (58%)
2024-10-13	6	vs CLE	10	Under	—	22 (35%)
2024-09-29	4	@ TB	11	Under	—	49 (86%)
2024-09-22	3	@ NO	8	Under	—	63 (87%)
2024-09-16	2	vs ATL	6	Under	—	56 (79%)
2024-09-06	1	vs GB	0	Under	—	32 (42%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 4m ago.