NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jonathan Taylor RB

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

15.5 Rec Yds O -108U -116

Hit rate · All 43%15/35 Odds imply 49.2% Over

Season avg: 17.2
Graph avg: 16.7
Graph median: 14.00–50
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Carries21.5▲+2.5

Rush Yds88.2▼-5.0

Rush TD1.5▲+0.4

Targets3.8▲+0.5

Rec2.5▼-0.2

Rec Yds17.2▼-5.0

Snaps54.0▲+2.1

Snap %84.7%▲+2.2

2024

0

Sep 08
32

Sep 15
25

Sep 22
20

Sep 29
12

Oct 27
11

Nov 03
8

Nov 10
3

Nov 17
0

Nov 24
7

Dec 01
4

Dec 15
0

Dec 22
11

Dec 29
3

Jan 05
2025

27

Sep 07
50

Sep 14
16

Sep 21
20

Sep 28
20

Oct 05
14

Oct 12
38

Oct 19
21

Oct 26
12

Nov 02
42

Nov 09
8

Nov 23
36

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
14

Dec 14
33

Dec 22
14

Dec 28
13

Jan 04
2026

23

Sep 13
40

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 15.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 18.9
Away 29% 5/17 · avg 14.3
vs PIT 50% 1/2 · avg 16.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 5.5 74% 26/35
O 10.5 66% 23/35
O 15.5 Today 43% 15/35
O 20.5 31% 11/35
O 25.5 23% 8/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds98.9#13
Yds/Carry4.5#12
Rush TD0.4#31
Targets6.3#8
Rec Yds34.3#13

RBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main RB who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.8

Avg diff %+142%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Raheim Sanders	7	22.0	-68%
Sep 27	Chase Brown	8	31.7	-75%
Sep 20	Rhamondre Stevenson	3	29.0	-90%
Sep 13	Bijan Robinson	90	10.0	+800%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	53%5.8 yds	5%10.0 yds	40%3.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 15.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	2	Under	19.5	47 (71%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	4	Under	21.5	60 (85%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	40	Over	16.5	61 (94%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	23	Over	18.5	48 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	13	Under	—	34 (52%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	14	Under	10.5	51 (89%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	33	Over	33.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	14	Under	15.5	51 (85%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	0	Under	18.5	52 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	36	Over	17.5	53 (98%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	8	Under	10.5	46 (90%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	42	Over	45.5	70 (91%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	12	Under	18.5	62 (79%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	21	Over	10.5	40 (75%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	38	Over	40.5	52 (87%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	14	Under	14.5	54 (92%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	20	Over	20.5	49 (74%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	20	Over	20.5	53 (87%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	16	Over	14.5	45 (79%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	50	Over	50.5	66 (93%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	27	Over	30.5	52 (71%)
2025-01-05	18	vs JAX	3	Under	—	56 (72%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NYG	11	Under	—	68 (88%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TEN	0	Under	—	47 (76%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DEN	4	Under	—	52 (68%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NE	7	Under	—	55 (89%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DET	0	Under	—	53 (96%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NYJ	3	Under	—	63 (90%)
2024-11-10	10	vs BUF	8	Under	—	53 (83%)
2024-11-03	9	@ MIN	11	Under	—	39 (72%)
2024-10-27	8	@ HOU	12	Under	—	52 (81%)
2024-09-29	4	vs PIT	20	Over	—	48 (73%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CHI	25	Over	—	49 (88%)
2024-09-15	2	@ GB	32	Over	—	29 (52%)
2024-09-08	1	vs HOU	0	Under	—	43 (96%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 15.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.