NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Bijan Robinson RB

ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET

26.5 Rec Yds O -116U -109

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 50.7% Over

Season avg: 30.0
Graph avg: 42.0
Graph median: 38.02–106
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Carries21.2▲+4.4

Rush Yds123.5▲+36.6

Rush TD1.0▲+0.6

Targets4.5▼-1.6

Rec3.5▼-1.1

Rec Yds30.0▼-18.2

Snaps41.5▼-9.1

Snap %65.0%▼-13.2

2025

25

Sep 14
39

Sep 21
106

Sep 28
68

Oct 13
52

Oct 19
23

Oct 26
50

Nov 02
4

Nov 09
39

Nov 16
37

Nov 23
51

Nov 30
8

Dec 07
82

Dec 11
92

Dec 21
34

Dec 29
10

Jan 04
2026

90

Sep 13
9

Sep 20
19

Sep 24
2

Oct 05
?

Oct 12

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 26.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 37.1
Away 55% 11/20 · avg 35.2
vs BAL No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 16.5 75% 15/20
O 21.5 70% 14/20
O 26.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 31.5 60% 12/20
O 36.5 55% 11/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds71.4#30
Yds/Carry3.6#27
Rush TD0.8#12
Targets7.2#2
Rec Yds35.6#10

RBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main RB who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-10.2

Avg diff %-52%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tyjae Spears	-1	13.7	-107%
Sep 27	Javonte Williams	5	22.2	-78%
Sep 20	Travis Etienne	6	22.5	-73%
Sep 13	Jonathan Taylor	23	15.3	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.6 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%9.8 yds
Short	36%6.7 yds	18%6.4 yds	28%5.9 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.8 yds#2	5%16.8 yds#11	7%15.6 yds#3
Short	31%5.3 yds#23	17%5.7 yds#27	35%5.3 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	57%7.4 yds	12%7.4 yds	28%5.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	4	6.2	25	27.7%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	4	4.5	18	21.1%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	4	3.2	13	14.2%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	4	2.2	9	9.7%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	4	1.8	7	7.2%
7	Zachariah Branch WR	4	1.5	6	6.3%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	2	1.0	2	4.1%
9	Brian Robinson RB	4	0.8	3	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 26.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	2	Under	36.5	34 (60%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	19	Under	37.5	51 (72%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CAR	9	Under	42.5	35 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PIT	90	Over	33.5	46 (77%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	10	Under	39.5	53 (84%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	34	Over	43.5	42 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	92	Over	75.5	54 (70%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	82	Over	82.5	64 (90%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	8	Under	39.5	43 (67%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	51	Over	55.5	60 (87%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	37	Over	42.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	39	Over	28.5	56 (85%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	4	Under	10.5	54 (86%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	50	Over	40.5	54 (96%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	23	Under	35.5	30 (60%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	52	Over	58.5	57 (88%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	68	Over	34.5	52 (74%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	106	Over	105.5	45 (69%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	39	Over	45.5	53 (80%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	25	Under	25.5	43 (65%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 26.5Underdog 27.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 17m ago.