NFL Prop Research

DB

Daniel Bellinger TE

TEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

7.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply —

Season avg

6.2

Graph avg

16.2

Graph median

8.50–88

Over the close

40%4/10

2026 per game

Targets1.2▼-0.8

Rec1.0▼-0.5

Rec Yds6.2▼-15.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps23.8▼-12.6

Snap %41.2%▼-9.8

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

• Home 40% 6/15 · avg 12.9
• Away 64% 9/14 · avg 17.4
• vs HOU No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 2.5 70% 14/20
• O 7.5 Today 55% 11/20
• O 12.5 40% 8/20
• O 17.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds54.0#15
• Receptions6.0#8
• Targets8.1#8
• Yds/Target6.7#20
• Rec TD0.4#11

TEs vs HOU · 2026

Each main TE who faced HOU this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+33.9

Avg diff %+82%

Beat their average67% (2/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	DAL Jake Ferguson	11	22.8	-52%
Sep 27	IND Tyler Warren	55	25.0	+120%
Sep 13	BUF Dalton Kincaid	130	46.7	+179%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%5.7 yds	2%12.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	34%5.0 yds	10%4.6 yds	41%4.3 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.1 yds#8	3%23.1 yds#4	7%13.7 yds#6
Short	27%5.2 yds#26	19%6.6 yds#19	34%5.0 yds#24

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	0%	5%0.0 yds
Short	47%8.7 yds	16%7.0 yds	26%3.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · TEN 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	4	8.0	32	29.9%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4	5.8	23	19.1%
3	Gunnar Helm TE	4	3.0	12	11.2%
4	Elic Ayomanor WR	4	2.5	10	10.1%
5	Tony Pollard RB	4	2.8	11	9.7%
6	Tyjae Spears RB	4	1.8	7	7.4%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	3	1.7	5	7.3%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	4	1.2	5	4.7%
9	Chimere Dike WR	4	0.8	3	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	2	Under	6.5	33 (52%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	16	Over	4.5	24 (40%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	0	Under	4.5	24 (45%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	7	Under	7.5	14 (28%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DAL	38	Over	38.5	69 (92%)
2025-12-28	17	@ LV	11	Over	0.5	62 (97%)
2025-12-14	15	vs WAS	35	Over	5.5	18 (26%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DET	0	Under	11.5	51 (62%)
2025-11-16	11	vs GB	0	Under	—	34 (47%)
2025-11-09	10	@ CHI	8	Over	8.5	53 (73%)
2025-10-26	8	@ PHI	21	Over	10.5	21 (40%)
2025-10-19	7	@ DEN	88	Over	—	52 (68%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NO	52	Over	—	38 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs LAC	13	Over	—	24 (32%)
2025-09-21	3	vs KC	6	Under	—	16 (24%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DAL	0	Under	—	19 (28%)
2025-09-07	1	@ WAS	14	Over	—	15 (22%)
2025-01-05	18	@ PHI	9	Over	—	31 (58%)
2024-12-29	17	vs IND	0	Under	—	50 (89%)
2024-12-22	16	@ ATL	5	Under	—	39 (66%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 7.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 9m ago.